Vaishali Jain

Job Market Paper

Unintended Effects of Conditional Effects of Conditional Cash Cash Transfers on Child Marriage in West Bengal, India (Link)

This paper examines the Kanyashree Prakalpa (KP), a Conditional Cash Transfer program launched in 2013 in West Bengal, the Indian state with the highest child marriage rates. The program ties benefits directly to marital age rather than relying solely on education. Using difference-in-differences and event study designs with DHS 2019-21 data, I find that KP increased marriage likelihood by 4-6 percentage points (10-18%) for girls aged 16-17 after four to six years of exposure. Early motherhood likelihood rose by 4 percentage points (10-12%) for ages 16-18. The program achieved modest gains in middle-grade education but minimal changes in higher grades. Boys showed no educational effects. These findings demonstrate that conditioning cash transfers on marital age can produce unintended consequences, with families accelerating rather than delaying marriage as girls approach the benefit threshold.

Working Paper

Five Decades of Climate Influence: Impact on Agricultural Productivity in India (1966-2015) 

Climate change threatens agricultural productivity in developing countries, yet evidence on whether farmers successfully adapt remains limited. This paper examines climate adaptation in Indian agriculture using district-level data from 1965-2015. I combine agricultural data from the Inter- national Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) with growing degree days constructed from hourly ERA5 temperature measurements. I estimate short-run climate impacts through panel fixed effects and long-run adaptation through long-differences. The analysis focuses on rice and wheat and examines the role of Green Revolution technologies in moderating temperature damage. Panel estimates show rice loses 9.5 percent of yields per 100 extreme degree days above 33°C while wheat loses 8.9 percent per 100 extreme degree days above 30°C. Long-difference estimates show evidence of adaptation for both crops. Green Revolution adoption explains this pattern. High-yielding rice varieties offset temperature damage, reducing climate sensitivity by 40-60 percent. For wheat, irrigation infrastructure offsets temperature damage while high-yielding varieties show no effect. Climate adaptation operated through crop-specific technological pathways.

Work in Progress

The Impact of Air Pollution on Health and Mental Well-Being in Developing Countries

Publication

Caste Differences in Child Growth: Disentangling Endowment and Investment Effects 

(with Joseph Cummins, Jingyan Guo, Anaka Aiyar, Neha Agarwal, Andrew Bergmann)

World Development (2024) Link