Yovel & Geulah
 
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Chapter 2: Arriving at a Combined Approach

As mentioned before, there are two opinions on how to count Yovel.
  • Rabbanan say that the 50th year does not count as part of a Shmitah Cycle.  (Arachin 33A)  The result is that the year after Yovel is the first year of the following cycle.
  • Rebbi Yehudah says that the 50th year is also the 1st year of the next Shmitah cycle. (Arachin 12B)  The result is that the year after Yovel is second year of the following cycle.
The conclusion in the Gemara is that the halachah is according to Rabbanan, and that is the counting system used by the Rambam, cited above.
  • According to Rabbanan, the 46th, 47th, and 48th Yovel years from the time of Ezra would be in 5715, 5765, and 5815 respectively.
  • According to Rebbe Yehudah, the 46th, 47th, and 48th Yovel years from the time of Ezra would be in 5670, 5719, and 5768 respectively.
There is a problem with both of these systems: They contradict our halachic practice.  Per Rabbanan, Shmitah was in the year 5764.  Per Rebbi Yehudah, it was in 5767, and our accepted halachah is that Shmitah was in 5768.

It would appear that there is a secret behind the disagreement between Rabbanan and Rebbi Yehudah which is hinted at in the tradition of the Geonim.  The tradition that we have states that after the destruction of each Beit HaMikdash, instead of counting according to Rabbanan, we count just Shmitah cycles of 7 years.  Perhaps that is not entirely precise.

I propose the following:

During the time of Exile, both of Babylon and Edom, the halachah is like Rebbi Yehudah.

That is to say:
  • From 2504 until 3339, the counting is like Rabbanan, with 50 year cycles.
  • From 3340 until 3415, the counting continues, but it is now according to Rebbi Yehudah, with 49 year cycles.
  • From 3416 until 3829, the count restarts/resets, and the counting proceeds according to Rabbanan.
  • From 3830 until the Yovel will be reinstated, the counting continues, again according to Rebbi Yehudah, with 49 year cycles.
This is hinted at in Sefer Yehezkel chapter 40, verse 1:

In the 25th year of our exile, on Rosh Hashanah, on the 10th of the month, in the 14th year after the city was hit, in the midst of this day, the Hand of Hashem was upon me, and brought me there.

What year has the Rosh Hashanah on Yom Kippur?  One must say that it is Yovel (Arachin 12a).  And thus it is, since the 1st Beit HaMikdash was destroyed in the 36th year of the Yovel, the following Yovel would be in the 14th year after the destruction of the Beit HaMikdash.

Per the Rambam, cited above, the purpose of the Yovel count (when the commandment of Yovel is not in force) is in order to ensure that Shmitah is observed in the proper years.  However, if we use the counting system of Rebbi Yehudah, it is now no longer necessary to count Yovel for that purpose, giving us a hidden Yovel count.

If we examine the Yovel years that occur from the time of Ezra, where the count restarted in the year 3416, we find a startling result:
  • The 46th Yovel took place in the year 5678 (1917/1918CE), the year that the British captured Jerusalem from the hands of the Ottoman Empire, and the Balfour Declaration, guaranteeing the land of Israel to the nation of Israel.
  • The 47th Yovel took place in the year 5727 (1966/1967CE), the year of the Six-Day War and the Unification of Jerusalem under Jewish sovereignty.
The events of those Yovel years have obvious ramifications for the Redemption of the Land of Israel, which is one of the major themes of the Yovel itself.

The 48th Yovel will take place in the year 5776, after the next Shmitah year.  If we count the Yovel years starting in the time of Yehoshua bin-Nun, 5776 will be the 66th Yovel.