Taisuke Nakata

I am an Associate Professor at the Graduate School of Economics and the Graduate School of Public Policy at the University of Tokyo.

I graduated from New York University with a Ph.D. in Economics in May 2012.

My research interests are Macroeconomics, Monetary Policy, and Applied Econometrics.

Email: taisuke.nakata [at] e.u-tokyo.ac.jp or taisuke.nakata [at] gmail.com

CV (Last updated on December 2022)     Google Scholar Profile     Teaching  

What's New

Working Papers

"Equilibrium Yield Curves and the Interest Rate Lower Bound" with Hiroatsu Tanaka (R&R at Review of Economic Dynamics)

"Speed Limit Policy and Liquidity Traps" with Sebastian Schmidt and Paul Yoo (R&R at Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking)

"Monetary Policy Options at the Effective Lower Bound: Assessing the Federal Reserve's Current Policy Toolkit" with Hess Chung, Etienne Gagnon, Matthias Paustian, Bernd Schlusche, James Trevino, Diego Vilan, and Wei Zheng (2nd round R&R at International Journal of Central Banking; Cited by Vice Chair Clarida [February 2019]; Original version presented at the August 2019 FOMC meeting)

"Three  Years  of COVID-19-related School Restrictions and Children's Mental Health in Japan" with Naohisa Shobako and Reo Takaku [Available upon request] (R&R at Scientific Reports)

"Optimal Vaccine Allocation Strategy: Theory and Application to the Early Stage of COVID-19 in Japan" with Daisuke Fujii and Toshikazu Kuniya [Available upon request]  (R&R at Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering)

"Optimal Inflation Target with Expectations-Driven Liquidity Traps" with Philip Coyle

"Understanding Cross-Country Heterogeneity in Health and Economic Outcomes during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Revealed-Preference Approach" with Daisuke Fujii, Sohta Kawawaki, Yuta Maeda, and Masataka Mori; Slides

"The Effects of Hosting the Olympic and Paralympic Games on COVID-19 in Tokyo: Ex-Ante Analyses" with Asako Chiba, Daisuke Fujii, Yuta Maeda, Masataka Mori, Kenichi Nagasawa, Wataru Okamoto

"COVID-19 and Suicide in Japan" with Quentin Batista, Daisuke Fujii, and Takeki Sunakawa

"Monthly Prefecture-Level GDP in Japan" with Daisuke Fujii and Takeki Sunakawa

"Subjective Assessment of COVID-19 Risks in Japan: A Cross-Sectional Study" with Asako Chiba, Thuy Linh Nguyen and Reo Takaku

Publication in Economics

"Cross-Regional Heterogeneity in Health and Economic Outcomes during the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Analysis of Japan" with Shotaro Beppu, Daisuke Fujii, Hiroyuki Kubota, Kohei Machi, Yuta Maeda, and Haruki Shibuya, Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Vol. 70. 101275. 2023.

"Credible Forward Guidance" with Quentin Batista and Takeki Sunakawa,  Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 153. 104699. 2023. [2022 BOJ-IMES version], [2019 FEDS version], [Slides]

"Average Inflation Targeting and the Interest Rate Lower Bound" with Flora Budianto and Sebastian Schmidt, European Economic Review, Vol. 152. 2023.

"Expectations-Driven Liquidity Traps: Implications for Monetary and Fiscal Policy" with Sebastian Schmidt, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Vol. 14(4): 68-103. 2022. [2019 FEDS version] 

"Covid-19 and Output in Japan" with Daisuke Fujii, Japanese Economic Review, Special Issue: SIR Model and Macroeconomics of COVID-19. 2021.

"A Promised Value Approach to Optimal Monetary Policy" with Timothy Hills and Takeki Sunakawa, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 83(1): 176-198. 2021.

"Effective Lower Bound Risk" with Timothy Hills and Sebastian Schmidt, European Economic Review, Vol. 120. 2019. [This paper supersedes two older papers, (i) "The Risky Steady State and the Interest Rate Lower Bound" and (ii) "The Risk-Adjusted Monetary Policy Rule." See "The Risk of Returning to the Effective Lower Bound: An Implication for Inflation Dynamics after Lift-Off'' for a non-technical summary. Featured in a Hutchins Roundup. "The Risky Steady State and the Interest Rate Lower Bound" is featured in a Bloomberg article and a Reuters article and is cited by Vice Chair Clarida (February 2019). "The Risk-Adjusted Monetary Policy Rule" is cited by Gov. Brainard (September 2017, October 2017, March 2018, May 2018)] 

"Attenuating the Forward Guidance Puzzle: Implications for Optimal Monetary Policy" with Ryota Ogaki, Sebastian Schmidt, and Paul Yoo, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 105: 90-106. 2019.

"Conservatism and Liquidity Traps" with Sebastian Schmidt, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 104: 37-47. 2019. [2014 FEDS version]

"Gradualism and Liquidity Traps" with Sebastian Schmidt, Review of Economic Dynamics, Vol. 31: 182-199. 2019. [2016 FEDS version]

"Financial Stability and Optimal Interest Rate Policy" with Andrea Ajello, Thomas Laubach, and David Lopez-Salido, International Journal of Central Banking, Vol. 15(1): 279-326. 2019. [Cited by Vice Chair Quarles (June 2019); Cited by Stanley Fischer (October 2015, January 2016); Reviewed in a blog entry by Ben Bernanke]

"Reputation and Liquidity Traps,'' Review of Economic Dynamics, Vol. 28: 252-268. 2018. [WP version (2014); See "Credibility of Optimal Forward Guidance at the Interest Rate Lower Bound'' for a non-technical summary]

"Fiscal Multipliers at the Zero Lower Bound: The Role of Policy Inertia'' with Timothy Hills, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 50(1): 155-172. 2018. [WP version (2014)]

"Uncertainty at the Zero Lower Bound," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Vol. 9(3): 186-221. 2017. [WP version (2016); WP version (2012); Replication Files; Cited by Janet Yellen (March 2015, December 2015, March 2016)]

"Optimal Government Spending at the Zero Lower Bound: A Non-Ricardian Analysis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Vol. 23: 150-169. 2017. [WP version (2016); Technical Appendix (2016); WP version (2015); Replications Files]

"Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy with Occasionally Binding Zero Bound Constraints," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 73: 220-240. 2016. [WP version (2016); WP version (2013); Replication Files; Cited in a speech by Janet Yellen)

"Small Sample Properties of Bayesian Estimators of Labor Income Processes'' with Christopher Tonetti, Journal of Applied Economics, Vol. 18(1): 121-148. 2015. [WP version (2014)]

"Welfare Costs of Shifting Trend Inflation,'' Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 41: 66-78.  2014. [WP version (2013)]

"Enhancing Market Discipline in Banking: The Role of Subordinated Debt in Financial Regulatory Reform'' with Douglas Evanoff and Julapa Jagtiani, Journal of Economics and Business, Vol. 63(1): 1-22. 2011.

Publication in Non-Economics Fields

"Heterogeneous Risk Attitudes and Waves of Infection" with Daisuke Fujii and Takeshi Ojima, PLoS ONE (Forthcoming).

"Population-Level Immunity for Transient Suppression of COVID-19 Waves in Japan from April 2021 to September 2022" with Sachiko Kodera, Haruto Ueta, Tasuo Unemi, and Akimasa Hirata, Vaccines, Special Issue: COVID-19: Epidemiology and Transmission. 2023.

Non-Refereed Publication

"Raising the Inflation Target: Lessons from Japan," FEDS Notes. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, January 8, 2020. [Featured in a Wall Street Journal article]

"Optimal Monetary Policy in a DSGE Model with Attenuated Forward Guidance Effects," with Hess Chung and Matthias Paustian, FEDS Notes. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, October 19, 2018.

"Model-Based Measures of ELB Risk,'' FEDS Notes. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, August 23, 2017.

"The Risk of Returning to the Effective Lower Bound: An Implication for Inflation Dynamics after Lift-Off,'' FEDS Notes. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, February 12, 2016.

"Credibility of Optimal Forward Guidance at the Interest Rate Lower Bound,'' FEDS Notes. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, August 27, 2015. [Click here for a pdf version]

"Canada: A Success Story,'' with Lucy Liu and Cemile Sancack, in Chipping Away At Public Debt: Sources of Failure and Keys to Success in Fiscal Adjustment, ed. Paolo Mauro. New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.,  2011.

"When and How to Adjust Beyond the Business Cycle?: A Guide to Structural Fiscal Balances'' with F. Bornhorst, G. Dobrescu, A. Fedelino, and J. Gottschalk, IMF Technical Notes and Manuals, April 2011.

"Has the Behavior of Inflation and Long-Term Inflation Expectations Changed?'' with Todd Clark, Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, First Quarter 2008.

"The Trend Growth Rate of Employment: Past, Present, and Future,'' with Todd Clark, Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, First Quarter 2006.