Apr 1, 2009 (strat on Blackeagle)
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2645523&postcount=1554
New Strat Certified Trainer
I am very pleased to announce that
Blackeagle is joining our team as a
STRAT CERTIFIED TRAINER
Blackeagle is another full-time trader
and Money Manager and trades forex and futures. Between 1991-2001, he
worked as a fund manager for a big bank and was trading only stocks and
bonds and managing $500M+ portfolio. Since 2001, he has been trading
his own accounts and several private clients and working from home.
He has a couple of self developed trading strategies based on price
action, and they are mechanical as he likes mechanical trading. He was
involved with indicators in the past but is not using them anymore and
strongly believes S/R lines, Price Action and Price patterns are the
way to go.
Thank you for your contribution in helping other traders.
Apr 8, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2657490&postcount=1775
Quote:
Originally Posted by Naws
I will look for bullish PA to indicate a bounce off this level
|
I believe EURGBP is one of the most tradable pairs based on
picture perfect S/R lines, some long term TLs (the recent up TL has
been drawn by using close prices) and of course PA respecting those S/R
and TLs.
Just have a look at the charts I am attaching and they are self-explanatory, IMO.
Re. recent situation, a short trade between 0.9450-0.9500 R zone and
0.9150 S zone was a good one. You could TP around 0.9150 and wait for
PA at that level, if your exit strategy is based on predetermined TP
levels (if so, you can reenter after breaking 0.9150, based on PA). If
not, then you could wait PA again, but this time to see if 0.9150 S
survives. Seeing it didn't you could bring your exit level behind
0.9150 and still running the short trade. There is also a recent
downward TL not shown on attachments, so you can also exit your short
if that TL is broken with PA. Because that would mean a retracement
until up TL and maybe further (I say "maybe further", because bigger
picture still tells me the trend direction is up until 0.8650 level is
broken downward).
If you are trading lower tf like H4, you can also see a recent Head and Shoulders which has 0.9150 neckline and 0.8800 target.
I believe these charts prove again why Strat named this thread and his
strategy as "Stress Free". If you put your S/R lines in correct places
and read PA around those levels, you don't need too many tools to trade
profitably. All you need to do is to plan your trade and be patient
while you are in. Though trading like this may be boring for some, you
will be rewarded more than you can imagine.
Attached Thumbnails
Apr 23, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2689115&postcount=2304Patience = REWARD - 1
I'd like to share three charts with you
which may prove that waiting for the right time patiently can generate
more pips than you can imagine. First one is USDJPY.
Although we are in uptrend since Jan 2009, long term trend is still
down. The level I am watching is 102 where we have LT down TL, SR level
since year 2000 and fibo. ret. of last swing down. As you can see,
there are too many confluences around 102 level.
97.00-97.50 level is important where we have BOSS 20 and TL supports,
but even if those levels are broken down, uptrend from Jan. 2000 will
still be valid until 93.50-94.00 levels are violated.
Attached Thumbnails
Apr 23, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2689125&postcount=2305
Patience = REWARD - 2
Second chart is USDCHF.
Price is moving in a big triangle. Downside break of the triangle is
not tradable, IMO as you will be trading to a very important 1.1300
support then. On the other hand, upside break looks tradable in terms
of potential reward. But keep in mind that, although trend is moving up
since Mar. 2008, BIG BOSS still says down. Therefore this is a possible
short term setup with clear risk and profit targets.
Attached Thumbnails
Apr 23, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2689139&postcount=2306
And this is GBPAUD chart.
This is a very interesting chart. 2.02 - 2.03 levels are very strong S
area, Look at the daily bar with arrow. After opening with gap down, it
proves how everyone is aware of that support area and closes strongly.
And 2.09-2.10 levels are very important R area and those green lines
are showing a pattern I like very much and breaking 2.10 level will
confirm the long trade (of course based on PA) in terms of R area and
the pattern. By the way, check out weekly bars and see how sellers
emerge around 2.09-2.10 area.
Attached Thumbnails
Apr 23, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2689148&postcount=2307All three charts above have a common
point which is apex of congestions is just 4-5 weeks away which means
we may see some big moves in the very near future and which also means
patience will reward the ones who know waiting.
Apr 24, 2009http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2693563&postcount=2368
Quote:
Originally Posted by shoestring
Blackeagle,
Thanks for your reply. Line charts on weekly and daily show .73 as a better SR, as do candles once I had the line drawn.
With this TL broken, could it have any significance as resistance at .73?
|
In most cases (I say "most", because sometimes we may have
picture perfect TLs and price follows those TLs, if you have a Natural
Gas futures chart, you'll see what I mean),
SR lines have more
significance than TLs. When a TL is too much violated, it becomes less
significant and it is removed from the chart at one stage, but SR lines
are always on the chart (of course depending on how much look-back
period you use). So, answer is yes, 0.73 is still significant and will
be so in the future.
Apr 24, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2694212&postcount=2381I don't want to give a wrong impression re. my comments about TLs on
post #2368. I always use them and agree 100% with Strat re. their
worth. Please take those comments in the context of "comparison of TL
vs. SR" and "which one has more significance in my trading style", if
they are used individually. When they come together with PA like Strat
showed on AUDJPY chart, they are the most valuable tools together.
Apr 26, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2695068&postcount=2394
Quote:
Originally Posted by AstonDan
Hi Team Strat,
EURGBP
On the weekly, we have seen 4 weeks of LH & LL until this week.
So where would you put your money?
|
Check out your weekly chart. Although the up TL on daily was
broken down, Feb 13th, 2009 weekly "swing" low is very important and
until that is broken, uptrend is still intact, IMO. April 20th bar was
an important one and telling the intention of bulls as they were kicked
out since March 19th, but until when? Do you see where the price has
reversed up? Do you see where the bulls stopped pushing prices higher
on Apr. 20th and 21st and why? Do you see why bulls stopped pushing
higher on 22nd and where were they on 23rd?
As you can see every bar gives us lots of info to plan your trade. Hope that helps.
Apr 26, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2695964&postcount=2414After a weak weekly close against all
currencies, one may ask the reason of strong USD Sunday opening. It is
always good to look for additional info and I always check out Dollar
Index chart to have an opinion re. overall trend of USD.
Attached Thumbnails
Apr 29, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2701653&postcount=2496
AUDJPY
JPY pairs are showing good PA, but I like AUDJPY the most. Reasons:
1- Since Jan 2009 LH was penetrated, and daily shows HL-HH, I believe the trend is north, at the moment.
2- 67.50 SR (looks like it moved to 68 recently, but 67.50 was too obvious between 1993-2003, therefore I am still using it).
3- Trendline support
4- PA - Hammer
5- Reversed at 78.6 fibo ret. of the last upswing
6- Both Daily 50 and Boss 20 are very close to 67.50 SR
7- Very good R:R as target is 72
Now, there is always possibility that the trade may go against us, but
waiting patiently for too many confluences to come together increases
our rate of success and I believe it is one of the keys.
Attached Thumbnails
Apr 29, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2702022&postcount=2501
Quote:
Originally Posted by Naws
I
have a fairly strong resistance at about 70.30 on audjpy. What I would
like to know is how do you decide whether to take the trade or not
despite the obstacles. To wait for a trade that has no near obstacles
is the safest but those trades seem to be very rare and being too
conservative will not get you any money. So how do you decide when the
obstacles create too much risk to take the trade or when they are
within your toilerable risk limit. Perhaps based on pros and cons -
like you have 7 reasons to take the trade and 1 reason not to so you
would...
|
In this particular case, although there seems to be an SR area
around 70.30, I believe it is not a major obstacle, IMO. If you switch
to line chart and put your horizontal line starting from 1993, you'll
see what I mean.
While drawing SR lines, I am using candlecharts and line charts
together, and trying to find the best possible lines. Assuming a long
entry above yesterday's high, 70.30 is approx. 180 pips away at which
you can take profit for certain percentage of your total position.
Depending on the quality and distance of next obstacle from entry,
different strategies can be used. If it is too close to the entry, it
is better to see PA around that level and then decide whether to take
the trade or not.
For current AUDJPY trade, I prefer to hold until 71.50-72.00 and then
depending on PA at that level watch 73.50 high to see if it'll be
broken for a new HH. Hope this helps.
May 2, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2709083&postcount=2593
Quote:
Originally Posted by FxPippy
Hi Strat
With regard to S & R lines and only being interested and marking them on charts on the open and close of levels.
When I check after the close of the week to add/amend the S R lines...
What would you advise/perfer us to do? many thanks, Nicole
|
Nicole,
This is how I draw SR lines. I start with monthly and try to determine
obvious SR lines. To do that, max. zoom out your chart and always
switch between candle and line charts to see if high/low prices have
any meanings relative to closes, if highs/lows are fakes or they are
just price shootings/anomalies.
Then go down to weekly tf and do the same thing. SR lines that are not
too obvious on monthly are clearer on weekly, therefore, normally my SR
line drawing procedure is complete at this stage and I go down to daily
tf to fine tune the ones drawn on weekly and monthly. Don't forget to
switch between candle and line charts on weekly, too.
Re. daily charts, I either use them to fine tune SR lines drawn on
monthly and weekly or if the price is in uncharted territory, I try to
determine new SR lines.
You don't need to use open prices to draw SR lines because FX market is
not like equities or commodities, since it is a 24hr market, open
prices are normally just a few pips away from close prices except
Sunday openings. For Sunday case, you can use Friday's close instead of
Sunday opening, that's fine.
If you draw your SR lines correctly, then you don't need to amend your
lines everyday or every week. They are valid for a long long time. Do
you know that 0.7300 level on AUDUSD is coming from 1994? Only if you
are in uncharted territory, then you can amend your recent lines
depending on how the chart shapes up.
One last hint is that you should see these SR lines as a thick line,
not a pinpoint and then watch PA around those lines. Because sometimes
PA does not give us enough clue around SR lines or move through those
levels without stopping due to news or strong momentum in which case we
pass the trade. This is where patience and discipline play a vital role
in trading, because if price gets away from recent SR line due to lack
of PA, then you need to wait the price reach the next SR line.
Now, if you open your EURGBP chart and do the things I have tried to
explaine above (because I believe EURGBP is the most clean chart to
practice SR lines), and then switch to other pairs and do the same
practice, I believe you'll have more confidence in drawing SR lines
correctly.
Hope this helps
May 7, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2718688&postcount=2687
A complete trade management - euraud
I am going to show you a trade recently
I took and will try to explain what I am doing before the trade and how
I am managing while holding the position so that anyone who has a
similar trading style can benefit.
My SR line is at 1.8600 and I have been watching this pair since April 2nd, 2009 when daily close was at 1.8792.
Lesson #1 - You should have your SR lines ready on your chart, and most importantly they should be at correct places.
Since Oct. 2008 the price was moving first in a wide range and then
forming a triangle, until traingle was broken down. Although one can
trade triangle pattern, the safest move was to wait the price to go
2.08 or 1.86 levels, where we have the range boundaries.
Lesson #2 - As it has been said over and over again almost on every
page in this thread, patience is very important and you should wait
until price gets close to your pre-determined levels. Because you know
your trading levels days-weeks before taking a trade.
Between Apr. 2-9, I didn't see any PA confirming long trade, so
everyday, it took only a few seconds to check daily close and move on
to other pairs.
Lesson #3 - That's why this trading style allows you to do other things in life and it is stress free.
April 9th was an important day for this pair as we saw a decisive break
of a major SR level. From now on, I looked for a test of 1.8600 level
again to see a PA to confirm the break was real and then, of course, to
open a short position.
Lesson #4 - There shouldn't be any hesitation in your trading plan, it
should be clear and should answer all " if " questions (like if support
holds, look for long trades, if PA confirms take long, if take long, SL
should be known... etc.)
We saw a test of 1.86 level on April 20th, but PA didn't confirm the
short trade. If you go down to H4 time frame, you can see some
confirming PA, but this is where Strat's teaching comes to play,
especially for volatile pairs like this.
Lesson #5 - Daily bar includes 6 times more info than a single H4 bar,
yes, sometimes it is costly but most of the time it's safer. Remember
our first goal is not to lose.
On April 28th, we saw another test of 1.8600. And next day, the daily
close was a bearish engulfing bar. After the second test of 1.8600
level and confirming PA, the break was real and I have opened the short
trade with confidence.
Lesson #6 - Even if the trade goes against you, do your homework properly, only that matters.
Stoploss was above 1.86.
Lesson #7 - It does not matter how many pips your SL is away.
Percentage loss and determining your trade size accordingly matter.
Re. take profit levels, I could use 1.80 and 1.77 levels (btw, I know
these levels before taking the trade, so not changing my trading plan
at all) with partial exit strategy, but generally I prefer to wait and
see PA around TP levels. So after seeing 4/30 and 5/4 bar closes and
PA, it was proved that 1.80 psycho. level was an important support
level and I have decided to exit half of the position with a limit buy
order at 1.80 and keep watching PA at that level.
Lesson #8 - The exit strategy is very important. You can either use a
fixed TP level strategy or keep watching PA around TP levels like I did.
5/5 daily close was below 1.80 level with a good bearish bar, but I
still didn't move my stoploss for the remaining position I have.
Lesson #9 - You should leave enough room for the trade to develop.
Patience while holding a position is important as much as patience
before opening the trade.
Yesterday low was 1.7742, close to 1.7700 SR level, so I have moved my
stop above 1.80 level and again decided to hold the position to see PA
around 1.77.
Lesson #10 - For this kind of trading style, trailing your stoploss is
important but your new SL level should have a meaning and again leave
enough room, this time to catch a possible long trend.
Today, although daily bar hasn't closed yet, price is approx. 100 pips
below 1.77. If it closes like this, I'll move my stop above 1.77. But
if I see a close above 1.77, it is highly probable that PA will be
bullish around an important SR level and I will exit my short position.
Last Lesson - As you can see above, every stage of the trade has been
planned before opening the position which take emotions out of the
equation. Although PASR is a discretionary trading method, you can
still trade it mechanically and exclude human factor as much as
possible.
Sorry for this lenghty post but I hope it helps you improve your
trading as it includes "bits and pices" re. planning a trade,
executing, managing, and even money management aspect.
Attached Thumbnails
May 8, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2721024&postcount=2715
Thanks everyone for your kind words re. my EURAUD post. We should all
thank to Strat for starting this thread and spending his valuable time
to teach us all.
Now, please go to post #2567, open your current daily chart and based
on EURAUD post, try to develop a similar complete trading plan. And
we'll all appreciate if anyone share that plan with us.
May 8, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2721041&postcount=2717
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sid
Hey Blackeagle,
Do you use both strategies depending on a certain setup/scenario? If
yes what would be your criteria that lets you know which strategy to
use?
Really enjoyed reading your analysis! Thanks for posting it!
Cheers
Sid
|
I don't use both strategies, because it is not related to
setups/scenarios, it is related to your risk profile and
you cannot
have both aggressive and conservative risk profiles at the same time.
May 9, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2722522&postcount=2754
Quote:
Originally Posted by strat
Don't get so wrapped up in S&R lines being "set in stone" and that
price MUST bounce at such and such a level. Keep an open mind.
There are also some important levels below those you mentioned. What is
to stop it going down to those? After all, it is making LLs and LHs.
It seems you have got so wrapped up in S&R that you are ignoring or
forgetting the other tools in our toolbox. Is there an MA that we
should maybe look at?
Why does your BOSS candle look good? What PA is it telling you? It's bloody awful on my data!
|
There may be similarities but each trade setup is a different
case, therefore please do not take my EURAUD post as a template for
other trade setups, instead you can use above Strat's comments as
template re. what you should look for a possible setup, I agree with
him 100%. And don't forget that more confluences from the tools we use,
more probability that the trade would go in our favour
May 10, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2724279&postcount=2825
Quote:
Originally Posted by strat
GBPUSD
and USDJPY were trading somewhat inverse to each other until around
August 14, 2008 when USDJPY decided to "flip over" and trade WITH GBPUSD
|
Mainly because of increased risk aversion and hence offloading
carry trades. It is really difficult to trade when correlation is high.
For some time, FX Market is correlated with Equity indices and whenever
indices moves north, people assume risk appetite is back and sell USD,
therefore, correct technical analysis of equity indices could generate
a very decent return on FX markets recently, even if you don't look at
any FX chart for major pairs (a little bit of exaggeration would do no
harm). This means, if you are trading different pairs, actually you are
increasing your risk in the same direction. That's why I hate
correlation, too.
So, can it be the solution to trade crosses, even the exotic ones like
EURNZD, AUDNZD, EURCAD or else for diversification? Why not?
May 11, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2724839&postcount=2834
Quote:
Originally Posted by fountaintree
MM
ii) To trade at most 2% of my existing balance and not take trade even with perfect set up if the require SL come out to >2%
|
Why miss the perfect setup? Instead of not taking trade, you can
adjust your trade size so that your predefined stoploss amount does not
exceed 2% of your account balance.
Considering your trading experience, I suggest "no rush" in trading
with real money. Even if you do, 2% per trade is too much as per your
experience, IMO
May 12, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2727112&postcount=2878
Quote:
Originally Posted by One14
Hi Guys,
2. This was my first time using 3 contracts (mini lots). My targets were based on previous swings and the last highest high.
|
Perfect setup, perfect entry, perfect SL, all deserve
Trade management and Exits
If you are using preset targets, 131 area was a better one for first
exit. 50 is too close, IMO, and what would happen if price retraced a
little bit to take your remaining lots at BE? You should consider to
leave enough room for trades to develop.
Re. exits, there are mainly two types of exits, preset targets or PA
without preset targets. Since you are trading daily tf, have you ever
considered to evaluate the chart after daily close and then decide
whether to exit or not (PA without preset targets). Look what happened
at the next day close. Both exit strategies have pros and cons but for
trend trading, I prefer PA exits.
Considering this is your first trade with a new trading method, well
done, congratulations. You need to improve your trade management and
exits.
Hope that helps.
May 13, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2731011&postcount=2945
Quote:
Originally Posted by cowboying
Hi Strat
I drew the TLs using a line chart and then revert back to bar chart; I’ve posted both charts below.
I think it was Blackeagle who has this method in his tool box.
I’m just experimenting with them.
Cheers
Steve
|
Yes, I do that to be able to see a more clear picture and when
you do that,
you'll see wicks are not that important when drawing TLs
(though I use them in special cases, rarely). Btw, you may remove the
upper TL since 4/20, 21 bars are not as significant as 4/28 bar, at
least for me.
May 15, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2736253&postcount=3071EURAUD
I have two major support levels; 1.7700
and 1.7450. May 7th daily bar was a real hammer on my data with low at
1.7477 and close at 1.7707, once again proving how important those
levels are.
The SR level at 1.8600 is very important and, even on big boss chart, I
still believe trend is down (this can be argued for Big Boss chart,
depends on how you evaluate it, this is just my opinion) after 1.8600
penetration. So, one could take long trade above May 7th hammer by
taking trend direction into consideration (countertrend trade) and
could target 1.8000 and 1.8600 respectively. 1.8000 was hit but MA20
didn't allow further up.
As a trade management, since it is a countertrend trade, you can
immediately bring stop to BE after exiting some percentage of the trade
size at 1.8000 and let the remaining run until 1.8600. There is a good
chance of reaching the target if and only if MA20 is cleared.
Please do remember that every trade is different
May 21, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2747344&postcount=3225Can USD manage to turn around?
We see strong USD downtrends on majors.
Some majors penetrated important SR levels and some are still trying
while sitting at important crossroads. So what is next? Are the
penetrations real or fake?
At such times, I prefer to check USD Index chart to guide me. As you
can see from the attachments, 81 is a very important SR level, and I'll
be watching PA around this level to get clues if current USD
bearishness is over or not.
Attached Thumbnails
May 31, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2768560&postcount=3489Gbpchf-latest Chart
This is the one I have for GBPCHF. As
Strat always indicates, S/R lines are more important than trendlines
(as you can see a well-respected down TL was broken, but SR hasn't let
it go up, yet) .
The only problem with this kind of perfect setups is that everyone is
aware of 1.75 level and when that level is penetrated I believe we'll
see huge volatility. Considering already wide daily ranges for this
pair, it would be wiser to wait until dust settles around 1.75 level
such as watching penetration and retracing and then opening position
with PA.
Attached Thumbnails
May 31, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2768593&postcount=3490
EURCAD
I was hoping for a retracement to
1.5650-1.5700 after breaking of both up TL and SR level on May 27th and
watching PA at those levels to take a short trade, so far no
retracement yet and still waiting.
If it doesn't retrace and go directly to 1.50, then it will be a missed
opportunity (there will always another one somewhere), but it depends
on your trading style. As we always try to explain in this thread,
there are two ways to trade such setups, either taking the trade as
soon as you believe the penetration is underway which gives you early
entry and not missing opportunities but may cause you trouble due to
false breakouts which are quite common in forex OR you can wait for the
pullback to SR level after breakout and watch PA around that level .
So, first strategy is aggressive whereas the second one is more
conservative and safer. I prefer second one.
Attached Thumbnails
May 31, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2768626&postcount=3491EURUSD Futures
I am also using futures charts of
currencies to analyse volumes. Attached one is the Euro currency which
reflects EURUSD pair in forex.
Look at the second last bar (Thursday's daily bar). It is a perfect
example of conservative entry that I have mentioned on my previous
EURCAD post. Although that bar is not a hammer, look at the previous
two bars. As Strat reminds us all the time, reading the bars including
current and surrounding ones and trying to understand what they are
telling us are crucial in success for PA trading.
Attached Thumbnails
June 1, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2771547&postcount=3525
Quote:
Originally Posted by elitejets
The US dollar index ....
Maybe Blackeagle has a comment on it or a level ...
|
I have attached the recent chart. I find no reason, at the
moment, to be bullish. Maybe a retracement to close the gap, but unless
81 is penetrated decisively, downtrend continues. We have a support,
but minor one, at 79 level. Next support at 75.
Attached Thumbnails
June 2, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2772294&postcount=3531
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmn100
Correct
me if I'm wrong here, but does this mean you only really pay attention
to monthly and weekly S/R, and expect price to break to these areas
rather than paying to much attention to daily S/R? Basically you only
pay attention to daily S/R if it tallies up nicely with monthly/weekly
S/R?
|
If an SR is obvious on weekly and monthly, it is obvious on daily
too, so we call them major SRs. Actually, it all depends on your
trading style and look-back period you choose. If you are an agressive
trader, then you can keep your look-back period short and draw SRs on
daily chart only. In this case, the SRs may not have any meaning on
weekly or monthly charts. But my advice is to look at the big picture
always.
So, my answer is yes, I am paying attention to major SRs only except if
the price is in uncharted territory. If so, then I am drawing SRs on
daily only such as EURGBP chart after December 2008. Hope that helps.
Aug 3, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2925031&postcount=4381GBPUSD Line Chart
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grimweasel
Cable looks range bound still.
So, just sit and wait for PA to reveal all - nothing to get me long or
short on that chart, but an indication to go short is in favour over
long.
|
It was range bound during June-July, but daily close above 1.6550
on Friday and still staying above this level shows the strength of
uptrend. As long as 1.6500-1.6550 support holds, next resistance is at
1.71.
Attached Thumbnails
Aug 3, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2925073&postcount=4382CADJPY - Weekly
I'd like to share a very clean chart
which shows 89 level is very important. Down TL has been broken but
double top and 89 R level prevents futher move up, for now. I suggest
watching PA around 89.
Attached Thumbnails
Aug 3, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2925110&postcount=4384
Quote:
Originally Posted by elitejets
I used to hate EURGBP but I have to like this setup. I am a seller of rallies here...
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Although I agree with you re. playing from short side (due to
LH-LLs since 2009), long term up TL is still valid, therefore, I prefer
range trading between 0.8400-0.8650 and any close above / below those
levels will determine long term bias, IMO.
Attached Thumbnails
Aug 3, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2925149&postcount=4385
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grimweasel
Overall I'm struck with the simplicity of it all - there could actually be merit in trading a line chart ...
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Yes, there is, especially if you are using a breakout strategy.
As you have indicated, I always switch between candle and line charts
not to miss an opportunity in case one provides whereas the other does
not.
Aug 3, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2927341&postcount=4406
Quote:
Originally Posted by strat
Line charts are
invaluable for highlighting S&R and from there using them on break
out strategies such as 123. However, there is no substitute for PASR.
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Agree, I use line charts mostly to highlight (or fine tune) my S&R levels.
Aug 12, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2951125&postcount=4518Trade Plans please?
I have attached AUDNZD Daily chart and would like to hear your trade plans based on Strat's teachings.
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Aug 12, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2951238&postcount=4522
Quote:
Originally Posted by Naws
... I see a lot of indecisiveness in direction here...
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Maybe not... Remember Dr. Joe's replies (I believe this is the most important advice here when combined with PASR):
"
“How do you know when to stop buying?”
“When it stops going up.”
“How do you know when it stops going up?”
“When it starts going down.” "
On this chart, the picture is very clear if you trade with Dr Joe's
method and each cycle is 300-400 pips worth which you could get at
least two third of every move with PASR.
It does not matter what you trade (any currency pair, futures, stocks etc.), what matters is how you trade.
Attached Thumbnails
Aug 18, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2966238&postcount=4649
Quote:
Originally Posted by femfam
I know this is not a perfect setup...
... now the two pin bars or whatever you want to call them is 'acting'
meaning taking 'action' at that level; what else can we call this?
PRICE ACTION - correct me if i'm wrong.
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EURAUD is definitely trending downward, no doubt about it. But
just to make you think in a different perspective, I'd like to attach
EURAUD and EURGBP charts side by side. Look at both charts and can you
see the difference?
You see a very clear picture on EURGBP whereas EURAUD is too crowded
with S/R lines between 1.70-1.77, almost every 200 pips which is not
good for trading daily time frame.
Therefore, we don't need to trade every chart even if you see S/R lines with some PA, we should be selective.
By the way, your first pin bar is not a good PA bar, it shows indecision, nothing more than that.
Hope this helps.
Attached Thumbnails
Aug 18, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2966266&postcount=4651
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grimweasel
Take a look at EurNzd...
Bottoming with a hammer a few days back - I prefer this to euraud.
I'm waiting for the downtrend TL to be broken and retested from above, then I'm looking at long.
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Definitely a much better and cleaner chart compared to EURAUD. I
believe I have mentioned about this pair somewhere on this thread (may
be mistaken, not sure) when we see the PA on first down arrow. Look at
the pips gained between the two S/R lines. By the way, taking short
position at the first arrow is a perfect stress free Strat setup.
I am also looking for long here, but with another system I have been
trading. We may refer to Dr. Joe again when that TL is broken.
Attached Thumbnails
Aug 23, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2980627&postcount=4768
Quote:
Originally Posted by strat
DYNAMIC SUPPORT & RESISTANCE INDICATOR ... |
When STATIC S&R coincides (confluence) with DSRI which
coincides (confluence) with PRICE ACTION which coincides (confluence)
with DR. JOE, it is STRESS-FREE, PROFESSIONAL & PROFITABLE TRADING.
Aug 23, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2980743&postcount=4770
Please read my posts #4522 and 4651
before moving on my next several posts. The reason of those two posts
was to show you all how I was actually trading, though the DSRI lines
on AUDNZD chart were drawn very roughly. But at that time, I was in
hesitate to show the method (whether the timing is right or not),
because Strat's thread was related mostly to static SR lines. Since he
has decided to show you DSRI, and it is exactly how I am trading, I
believe it is the right time to explain all I have.
Please understand that I have no intention to hijack Strat's thread.
Since what I am doing for trading falls exactly into the context of
this thread and all are related to Strat's teachings, my sole purpose,
as a Strat Certified Trainer, is to contribute more.
Aug 23, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2980796&postcount=4772Please have a look attached GBPJPY daily
chart with static SR lines (red) and DSRI (blue). And don't forget that
the chart is clean enough to trade (not congested with many SR lines).
By looking at daily chart, I am aware where SR lines are standing and
where the DSRI is so that I will not trade against them such as not
taking short trade where the price is close to support or vice versa.
Next few charts will be on H4 time frame. I should admit that I am trading H4 for majors and then daily for other crosses.
Attached Thumbnails
Aug 23, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2980855&postcount=4773Now I want you to check the price action
between June 11th-15th. What you see is a zone around 162 where the
price has difficulty to penetrate. Although 162 is not a major SR
level, we can put a minor SR level as price reacted to this level in
2000 and haven't closed above it since end of 2008.
After this fact, August 7th (NFP day) close above 162 was a strong one
and normally one can expect the test of 165 level. But price reversed
next Monday all of a sudden and put a label to Friday's close which is
"false breakout".
After making these comments by using daily chart, I am starting to
check H4 chart to see where the fall will end to enter long (Actually
we can enter short on H4 on Monday but since I am starting to show what
I am doing after Monday, I am looking for long). Dr. Joe is the one who
is helping me understand where it will stop going down.
“How do you know when it stops going down?”
“When it starts going up.”
And for this, I am using DSRI and Price Action together and one filters the other if I get a signal from only one of them.
What you should do is to draw a DSRI either on line chartor by using open/close on candlestick chart, I'll show you how.
Attached Thumbnails
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2980872&postcount=4774Now, until the bar where we have arrow,
you'll mostly see H4 bars with lower high and lower low together with a
few IBs that means we are going down. What we are looking for after
drawing DSRI is the break of it with a bar which shows higher high and
higher low.
Attached Thumbnails
Aug 23, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2980927&postcount=4776The bar with arrow tells me:
1- The price stopped going down because of DSRI break.
2- The price stopped going down because buyers managed to show their
strength and marked higher high/higher low with a strong bar (this is where
I am trading differently as opposed to Strat's shooting star/hammer entries.
I am using those but I am also OK with strong bullish/bearish bars as long as
they show hh/hl or vice versa. For newbies, please continue with shooting
stars and hammers until you study thousands and thousands of charts).
3- We have no immediate major/minor static resistance around, the nearest
one is at 162.
4- And the stop is where we see a bearish bar with lower low/lower high which
tells us the up move was fake. That means I am waiting for the bar close to
exit. That could be risky for some but I am determining my trade size
accordingly (Please see Strat's recent post re. MM).
Aug 23, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2980958&postcount=4777Now, after the entry, we should start
reading each H4 bar and try to understand what market is telling us.
Those three lines are not that important because they show indecision
and they failed to take the low of the very strong bar after the entry.
So I keep holding the long position.
Attached Thumbnails
Aug 23, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2980974&postcount=4778Then you can draw another DSRI either on
line or candle chart. Here is how I do it. And as you can see, I am
exiting the long trade at the close of the bar where we have arrow on
chart and taking short trade this time due to the fact that:
1- The price stopped going up because of DSRI break.
2- The price stopped going up because sellers managed to show their
strength with a very bearish engulfing bar.
3- We have no immediate major/minor static support around, the nearest
one is at 150.
4- And the stop of this new short position will be where we see a bullish bar with hh/hl and/or DSRI break.
Attached Thumbnails
Aug 23, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2981020&postcount=4780Now, you keep holding your short and wait DSRI break while it is forming and watch PA with LL/LHs. Isn't it stress-free?
You can either take profit after the close at first arrow bar or second
bar and this time take long due to reasons I have stated for previous
long position. This long position has a strong support from daily DSRI
and you can even increase your trade size and watch bar closes to
interpret PA.
Attached Thumbnails
Aug 23, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2981038&postcount=4783Trading continues and we have a long
position now. Another trick I use here while drawing DSRI is I modify
it as it evolves due to momentum change. On this attached chart, I have
highlighted this fact by drawing two DSRI with different slopes and the
bar with arrow closed under the modified DSRI which told me to exit the
long position and open a new short position (LL/LH, bearish engulfing).
Attached Thumbnails
Aug 23, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2981053&postcount=4784I hope I could explain what I was trying to show you. Now I'll show you some recent chart examples.
AUDCAD-Daily (as I stated previously, I am trading H4 on majors only,
Crosses are from daily) - Short at the close of the bar with arrow. A
good example for modifying DSRI while momentum changes.
Attached Thumbnails
Aug 23, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2981054&postcount=4785And still holding this short position.
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Aug 23, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2981067&postcount=4786
No comment.
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Aug 23, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2981068&postcount=4787No comment, same pair.
Attached Thumbnails
Aug 23, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2981082&postcount=4788AUDCHF-Daily
Attached Thumbnails
Aug 23, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2981099&postcount=4789Now you can practice the same principles on the AUDNZD daily chart I
posted and see what I meant and how each trade on zigzags performed
(you can switch to line chart, if you like a more clear picture).
Hope all these contribute to your trading.
Blackeagle
Strat Certified Trainer
Aug 23, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2981252&postcount=4792At Last?
Although its trendless nature since Jan
2009, the price is testing 1.0570 level third time this year. Based on
what I have tried to explain as my trading method, this is definitely
the one to watch.
A daily close under 1.0570 will be extremely bearish, IMO. Or an upside
break of DSRI with PA may generate a quick few hundreds pips profit
(until 1.0850-1.0900).
Attached Thumbnails
Aug 23, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2981520&postcount=4793Both daily and weekly close above 0.8650 is extremely bullish. Is it real? We'll see. PA will show the way.
Aggressive traders could jump on board when price broke 0.8650 (after
breaking 0.8650 on H4, the price retraced back to 0.8650 on the next H4
bar and then moved north again) or a safer play is to wait for another
retracement and take long with PA. OR watching DSRI and taking short
with a bearish bar, if it breaks down 0.8650 is another option.
Please see charts.
Attached Thumbnails
Aug 24, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2987107&postcount=4849
Quote:
Originally Posted by One14
Thanks Black!
I have been studying your posts and testing them out. It's amazing how well your method works.
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Indeed, especially when there is a static SR nearby, supporting the decision.
Watching USDCAD now.
Attached Thumbnails
Aug 25, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2990766&postcount=4867
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackdog
Hi Blackeagle
you say by looking at the daily chart you are aware of the static SR lines
but you always place your static SR lines from the weekly/monthly chart is that right
or for this method do you use only the daily for SR lines+ DSRI and then drill down to the 4h
thanks
|
Yes, the static SR lines are placed from weekly/monthly and fine
tuned on daily, so they are fixed. For majors, I am drilling down to H4
for DSRI, but watching the static SR lines, too and if there is one
nearby, I am not trading against it just because the price broke a
DSRI.
For example we have a very important static SR line at 0.8650 on
EURGBP. Now, if the price breaks current up DSRI line on H4 today,
since static SR level is too close, I will not take the short against
0.8650 support, instead I switch to wait and see mode to better
understand what the market is telling me and if PA confirms, taking
long after the test of 0.8650 is favourable.
Aug 26, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2991892&postcount=4870
Quote:
Originally Posted by One14
Did you take a trade on this?
Attached is my chart and I didn't see a valid setup. Could you comment on this?
While the bars were developing, it appeared that there was a bullish
break (bar with the arrow), but I passed due to the wick. This was the
third bar after the DRSI line break. What do you usually do if a break
of the line occurs like this, but no bullish bar exists? The next hl/hh
was the huge bar 2 bars later, but that threw risk/reward out of whack.
So nada for me. Curious if you saw it differently.
|
If the first or third bar after DRSI break had been bullish
enough with hh/hl, I would have definitely opened the long trade, but I
passed it, too.
Aug 26, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2996092&postcount=4891 [quote=blackdog;2992664]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blackeagle
Yes,
the static SR lines are placed from weekly/monthly and fine tuned on
daily, so they are fixed. For majors, I am drilling down to H4 for
DSRI, but watching the static SR lines, too and if there is one nearby,
I am not trading against it just because the price broke a DSRI.
Hi Blackeagle
On my EUR/GBP chart if the price broke the DSRI it would be about 100pips
away from the 0.8650 line is there a set amount of pips that you wont
enter the trade if your close to the Static SR line
thanks
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Please read Lotus' reply, if already not. He is correct and it all depends on the size of the candle that breaks DSRI.
Aug 26, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2996140&postcount=4893This is what I have on UJ daily. If we
see a daily close below 94, we may see another downleg to 92-92.5 and
that area is crucial as penetration may lead to another test of all
time lows, IMO.
Attached Thumbnails
Aug 26, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2996340&postcount=4898
Quote:
Originally Posted by PistolDave
Comments anyone?
|
This is what I have on Daily. It needs to clear 1.75 first to
start considering long. Then we'll have 1.77 and 1.80 resistances ahead
that means the chart is too crowded.
Check out the static SR lines above 1.80, I don't see any until 1.95,
so my strategy is to trade from short side below 1.75 and from long
side above 1.80. 1.75-1.80 area is no-trade zone for me. Hope that
helps.
Attached Thumbnails
Aug 28, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=3001512&postcount=4941Several Recent Trades - 1
GBPJPY - Long
PS. Please disregard these charts if you haven't mastered daily charts
with static SRs and shooting stars and hammers as per Strat's teachings.
Attached Thumbnails
Aug 28, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=3001539&postcount=4943SRT - 2
GBPUSD - Long
PS. These are not trading signals, just examples based on my last weekend's posts.
Attached Thumbnails
Aug 28, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=3001553&postcount=4944SRT - 3
USDCAD - Short
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Aug 28, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=3001582&postcount=4945SRT - 4
AUDNZD - Long
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Aug 28, 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=3001594&postcount=4946SRT - 5
And the most recent one, EURGBP - Short
For the ones who see a minor support at 0.8800, this could be a risky trade, but RR is too good.
Attached Thumbnails
Aug 28, 2009 (strat on Blackeagle)
Worker BEFORE H4