2/27/09
AUDUSD:
Weekly: Made a higher low at major support but still has some downward momentum left over from the last down cycle. The retrace could only manage 32.8% and with the 20 paralleling below the 50 it is telling us there are still lower prices ahead. This week's higher volume suggests a shot at major resistance at 0.6700 with a possibility to maybe touch 0.6850 but it's really more bearish than bullish. Daily: At minor support and it's bottom trend line. This is the 4th time testing this bottom trend line so let's see if the Rule of 4 comes into play. Also trapped in a triangle with the trend line from the recent highs so there is a breakout coming somewhere. Price, volume, cycles and momentum say to me that it will bounce back up to the trend line at 0.6570ish before making another attack on it's base line. Too congested and not enough potential for me to trade. CHFJPY: Weekly: In a strong upward cycle but bouncing off major resistance at 84.90. Volume, cycles and momentum look good for a push up to next major resistance at 88.00ish which also coincides with the 38.2% Fib retrace. Although the 20 is still below the 50, this week saw a strong close above the 20 so that is suggesting higher prices. Daily: Don't be fooled by yesterday's shooting star or today's hammer - the cycle and upward momentum is still very strong and with the lower volume on these two bars, it suggests profit taking to me. This high is at Fib resistance, major and minor resistance at 85ish so if it clears this we have a good run up to 85.60 and 87.30. The 20 has crossed above the 50 suggesting higher prices ahead confirmed by a cross above the Weekly 20. I'm looking for a minor retrace to go long again. EURGBP: Weekly: In a down cycle with good downward momentum although it stopped dead in it's tracks at major support and the 20 at 0.8760ish with confluence of the 50% Fib retrace. The 20 is above the 50 and both are looking up at the heavens. No brainer here - my one legged blind man knows what to do! Daily: Bouncing off minor resistance at 0.8980ish in a corrective down cycle within the bigger up cycle. The 20 which is just below the 50 is also providing immediate resistance but we have two tests of support from the bottom trend line. On this alone, it could waffle about between the 20 and 50 but I'm looking for the Weekly to win out and maybe push it up to the down trend line at 0.9050ish 3/6/09
AUDUSD: Just trolled around up and down within the last few week's weekly support and resistance so not really going anywhere until it breaks out of there. Daily prices still trapped within the daily triangle so waiting for the breakout. Everything looks down and as Oprah's comment about her boobs, "they're pointing South".
CHFJPY: We broke up out of the recent Weekly resistance and are now testing Weekly resistance again. Daily is at the top of it's triangle, has thrown out two hanging men in the last two days having tested resistance 4 times in eight days. Momentum is flattening out, two cycles are topping, one is ready to top and the shortest cycle is half way through it's up move. With all that information, the next move is ? EURGBP: Just trolled up and down within the last few week's weekly support and resistance and now at Weekly reistance. Daily at Daily resistance AND the 50. Looks like the BOSS is taking control and telling the Daily to get back on up there as the BOSS 20 has been supporting prices from Feb 18. EURJPY: Same as CHFJPY except cycles slightly more advanced EURUSD: Another troller of Weekly S&R going nowhere. Daily has been firmly rejected by resistance AND the 20. Yesterday, price was rejected by Daily support. We have two cycles bottoming, one trying to top with the shorter fast cycle half way through it's up cycle. This thing is fighting within itself which explains the lack of direction. The Average daily Trading Range for the last two days is 159 compared with monthly figures of 179 and quarterly 217, hence volatility is decreasing. (not even John Bollinger is telling you that!). Is this the calm before the storm? Price is at the upper boundary of the small triangle and just above the base trend line. This thing may go with a bang when the dam wall finally breaches. Take a look at Oprah's boobs for direction. GBPCHF: On it's way down to major resistance at 1.5860. (Still in from last week Baba G - ran the small reaction). If it can break the last major resistance at 1.5500, then Baba G has his wish. Downward momentum is accelerating. Looking for retraces to add. GBPJPY: Same as EURJPY. Downward momentum is accelerating. GBPUSD: On it's way down to minor support at 1.3950. Major support at 1.3650. Downward momentum is accelerating. USDCAD: Looks like it's taking a rest (profit taking) before moving higher. Upward momentum still strong. Everything is pointing up much like ? USDCHF: Broke above Weekly resistance and bounced off Daily resistance. Today's bar is a classic hammer at the end of a downtrend with it's close resting on both minor and major support with it's tail bouncing off the BOSS 20. Could this be the end of some sort of complex wave 4? Hmmm, I wonder what to do next? (I know what I'm doing, do you?). USDJPY: Weekly at 6 lines of resistance both major and minor (so it's important). Daily at 2 levels of minor resistance with major resistance above that. Three cycles are topping, the shorter cycle failed to complete and has turned down in disgust. Today's bar is on very heavy volume telling us that there has been a battle between the buyers and sellers with nobody coming out on top. It is bouncing off the 20 and now resting above minor support. Upward momentum is still accelerating. The sellers are trying to put in a top but the buyers won't let them. What to do? For me, play rock n roll until declares itself. 3/14/09
AUDUSD
BOSS Bullish bar climbing out of a 4th bottom which is also a higher low. Boss 20 at 0.6800 will cause a reaction but it's looking like it at least wants to give 0.7200 a go Daily Quadruple bottom on it's way to test recent highs. Minor resistance at 0.6670 might cause a wobble (profit taking). We have 3 strong closes above the 20 and 2 strong closes above the 50 - a bullish sign. All cycles are topping. Momentum turned bullish on March 5th. Prices are now at the critical 61.8% retrace. Start looking for places to go long. All the signs are here for the next run up but we are still fighting the BOSS. CHFJPY BOSS Rejected by resistance at 84.75 and resting on support at 81.25. Looks like an attempt at a swing high Daily Friday IB trapped between minor resistance and major support. Price closed below 20 but resting at critical 61.8% retrace. Needs to clear this support to go down to 80.79, the next major support, 50% retrace AND base trend line EURGBP BOSS Now at minor resistance at psycho 0.9300 on it's way to major resistance at 0.9465 Daily Rejected by minor resistance at psycho 0.9300 with all cycles topping. Look for fall to minor support at 0.9120 at least and probably to 0.9050, the next minor support, trend line from the highs AND 50% retrace. The BOSS is now back in control with the Daily making higher highs and lows confirmed by the 20/50 cross. EURJPY BOSS Banging it's head against major resistance at 126.60 with next major resistance breathing down on it at psycho 128.00. Maybe next week will thow out the reversal candle we are looking for. Daily My data shows a feeble attempt at a shooting star at major resistance but since volume does not support a reversal, I'm just watching. Plenty of support at 124.70 with major support at 123.70 Long term cycles are topping with short cycle waiting to complete. This could waffle around at the top before letting go. EURUSD BOSS Bullish candle straight off swing low runs straight into major resistance at 1.2950 - so what's new? Nothing except we are starting to run out of the consolidation resistance. The BOSS has moved into it's bullish cycle and may make a run at next major resistance at 1.3075 or the 20 at 1.3175. This is now all confirmed with the swing low on March 6th BUT still in a down trend. Daily My data shows a small range doji on pretty good volume telling us that the buyers ran out of steam but the sellers were not prepared to put their money on the line - yet? This is unusual because the sellers were selling every rally prior to this. We have a double top at major resistance at 1.2950 with all cycles topping AND momentum went bullish on March 3rd. Prices have closed above 20 AND 50. Looks like a retrace down to 1.2760 to 1.2740ish which is the 38.2% retrace. Technically still in a downtrend but fighting like hell to get out of it. Start looking for places to go long but keep in mind we are still fighting the BOSS. GBPCHF BOSS Trapped between major support and resistance in downward momentum Daily Everything is at resistance of all types - minor, major, down trend line from the highs AND the base trend line which WAS our previous support. Let me see if I can figure what this is trying to tell us...... GBPJPY BOSS Double top swing high in place, hanging man type bar but not in correct location, internal cycles fighting themselves, heavy resistance and 20 above but bounced off major support at 131.50 Needs to resolve its internal problems before going on it's merry way. Daily Banging it's head against minor resistance at 137.30ish BUT the first close above the 20 -BUT it's not a strong close and volume doesn't support a sustained move so look for a bar to put in a swing high and short off that GBPUSD BOSS Trapped between major resistance at 1.4220ish and major support at 1.3650 Daily On my data, this is a picture of S&R working at it's finest Price is rejected by major resistance at 1.4050 smack bang on 61.8% fib retrace when it launched from support at 1.3900. The 20 is hovering above just in case it gets any lofty ideas. The close is as weak as Butwiper beer confirmed by volume which doesn't like much of a move higher. Now look at the trend lines! It broke through the base trend line on March 9 and she's just gone back up to give us another kiss - called a re-test. You must keep your trend lines in place as they are providing you with FUTURE support and resistance. My cycles are all screwed up (yes Dr. Joe) but momentum is still accelerating down Maybe the Friday bar (not a shooting star on my data) will be the swing high but if not look for a swing high to go short after. USDCAD BOSS Still fighting it's way through all this overhead resistance but it has made it's intentions clear Daily Price supported by major resistance AND 20 at psycho 1.2700. Might just drop to minor support at 1.2620 or do a re-test of the trend line on the highs before having another go at all that messy resistance USDCHF BOSS Put in a high at minor resistance at psycho 1.1900. Still too messy to get a clear picture Daily Rejected by minor resistance at psycho 1.1900 Not interested in this until that huge bar resolves itself. For what it's worth, Momentum has turned around and gone bullish again! USDJPY BOSS Put in a hanging man after a doji confirmed by volume both rejected by 5 layers of resistance. Now let me get out the manual and see if I can figure out what this is telling us...... Daily Hasn't given up the long fight - yet, as the 20 said "here let me hold you up for a while longer". There is more overhead resistance than there is support so we need to see some sort of exhaustion/blow off bar to show us the way Sorry if this is not all cohesive as I'm struggling with a huge hangover from last night's meeting with customer execs. |