STOCK TRADING WATCHLIST (UPDATED EVERY 1-2 DAYS): 3/5 - KERX - KERX was touted by an individual going by the name Jeremy Richard. on the Seeking Alpha forum. I read somewhere else in a news feed that this individual is a fund manager. They also disclose that they are long the stock. Not only does this individual make overly confident, hyperbolic claims, but they have a bad track record as evidence by picks like NVAX, which they touted as an incredible buying opportunity at $3.50, now $1.27. In 2011, some of his picks did better than others but none performed great, and a few were abysmal, like NVAX. In that article he claimed NVAX was a 300% gain opportunity (it continued pretty much straight down not long after his recommendation)! Now he is claiming that KERX has almost a "done deal" with the FDA. No way, not even close! Put this on watch as a potential short. Risky, because the trial results will be unveiled soon, but odds favor that the drug will fail. This one is best for day trades due to the risk of a news shock. But it is likely that hedge funds are looking to sell out of this quickly, before any chance of the news shock. MSTG keeps going. 3/1 - MSTG revived itself today. Watch for it to continue breaking out. A couple favorite oil stocks that move big ... GBR, TLR and SSN ... these could ignite big time if oil pushes to new highs. Will they be talking about the $200/barrel oil question this summer? 3/1 - LINC looks to be rolling over. If it rolls over any futher it would be best to exit. BPAX had a nice one-day move with news on one of their cancer drugs. The news was encouraging and spiked the stock by .20, up about 20% for the day. AFFY had some nice down days but not as heavy selling as I was looking for. But if you had shorted right after the fakeout breakout, as suggested, you could have taken a solid profit after a few days. Now I think AFFY is a good long trade in anticipation of the FDA approval. Approval is almost a certainty. 2/20 - LINC - This is simply a perfect uptrending chart. I don't know much about the company but they are profitable. This is a chart I would feel comfortable swing trading on the long side. Pretty low liquidity though, so keep positions small and buy in small chunks on pullbacks to support just above $9. 2/20 - BPAX - Stock was up massively on FDA approval news but then sold off as traders realized the whole runup was mostly hype. But I did discover something very interesting about their other drug candidate (which is essentially the same thing - testosterone - with the appropriate dosing for women). This drug, Libigel, was intended to help post-menopausal women who suffer from low sex drive. While the drug showed no efficacy when compared to placebo in a phase III trial, it does appear to have the "side effect" of lowering risk for CV (cardiovascular) events substantially. Maybe they're considering pursuing this as a treatment to prevent CV events instead of the "female viagra" thing? I certainly wouldn't throw too much money at this stock, but, maybe at these levels (currently around 75 cents) a very small investment may have some upside longer term. And short-term there is the potential for a short squeeze as the short interest has been substantial (recently 20% of float was sold short). SEE THIS NEW PATENT FOR LIBIGEL:
http://www.faqs.org/patents/app/20120022033#b 2/14 - AFFY - Fakeout breakout? Price broke out to a new high and attracted a lot of breakout buyers. It looks like it could fail in the next few days, and push price down to maybe $9.50 or so, in order to shake out some longs ahead of the extremely important 3/27 FDA date. I definitely expect it to run higher into that date, but in the meantime it may shakeout and provide better entry for the long trade. Be very careful with the short, it could race higher very quickly if the breakout continues, but there is probably $1-2 of downside here. If you aren't comfortable with the short trade, wait for the pullback to enter long and then get out before the FDA decision... no telling what will happen then. A tight stop is imperative on this one ... can move against you fast! HEK - HEK has now been recommended by Cramer, and then The Motley Fool. I think we've now seen two shakeouts to get all the weak hands out. Given that the company is profitable and has potential, is oil and gas equipment related and cheap, I think the pain of others getting shaken out is a buying op. Could accumulate in the $4.75 to $5 range, with a stop just under $4.50. Looks like $1-3 of upside. And if it continues to go up, why sell? Notice the stop-gunning today? It dropped from $5 to about $4.80, but then was promptly bought up and brought back up to $5. Lots of folks had their stops right under $5. Ouch! GORO - GOOD SETUP FOR SHORT SALE. THE BULL MARKET IN GOLD APPEARS TO BE FINISHED (SEE CHART OF GLD). AND GORO IS ONE OF THE WORST GOLD COMPANIES. THE STOCK IS SORT OF "PROMOTED" BY ITS NICE DIVIDEND. BUT BEWARE THE COMPANY. INSIDERS HAVE BEEN SELLING THEIR STOCK. |