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Futurology has many aspects - but I divide the future into 2 parts. The deterministic, following trends that are evident, looking for weak-signals, horizon scanning etc. and then the truely random and mostly unpredictable ( Black Swan events are in this category). I have a feeling that the really important things unfortunately fall into the latter category!
So what can be done? Lateral thinking about what may be possible and then with what is probable. Identifying consequences of predictions is important (and also, more importantly, the unintended consequences!). I reckon that technology and the science upon which is based, is reasonably easy to predict. Next comes the ecomomic/business areas but really hard, are the people and society things - fashions, politics, etc. One of the biggest faults of futuistic visions (as seen in sci-fi movies for example) is that only some aspects of the future are covered and that the rest of the story/social issues are rooted in the present. So an organisation may wish only to consider the future of their products and services but to ignore the overall environment where their future business will be operating.
There is a tendency to overestimate the impact of the new in the short term (ie reacting to hype) but to underestimate the longer term consequences (when the hype has died away). People in business, focussed as they are on short term targets, tend to be more confortable about evolutionary change and are in danger of getting better at doing the 'wrong' things. Disruptive technologies can come out of the woodwork from unexpected directions and can wreck traditional businesses - sometimes very rapidly. Also, technology can be very deflationary. Perhaps the days of big organisations are numbered as networked clusters of individual people take over some roles.
It is interesting that there is always going to be a need for lawyers (so thay can sort out who pays when things go wrong). Which brings us to the question about jobs and the future. Automation, robotics, artificial intelligence and machine learning will mean that many, many of today's jobs will decline but perhaps the ones that remain (and grow) are the activities where people are doing things for people (and the law is a good example, along with the arts, politics, marketing, care/health, education, sport/games etc.). |