The Zietgeist

At the turn of the Millennium there was a mood of optimism and then it all changed. The dot-com bubble burst, 9/11 occurred and climate change became an “uncomfortable truth”. In other words the spirit of the age, or Zeitgeist, changed and new challenges now face societies, industries and individual people. Technology will be needed to help manage an increasingly uncertain world where the need for good quality maps and mapping will increase.

Disruption

Disruptive technologies are those which are unexpected but which have the power to change industries (not always for the good of the established players). Mobile telecommunications and the Internet are good examples and the telecommunication industry is now on the lookout for new disruptors. Whereness i.e. knowing where everything or everybody is located is a good example of a potential new disruptive technology. Although maps and GIS are used as part of Whereness today, in the future the mobile devices will have location based services that will increasingly be able to act as sensors and create and update maps and related information spaces whilst using them. This is likely to have an impact on the traditional business of map making.

The old and new essentials

As society gets more wealthy then people have more resources to spend on things that are less important (as shown by Maslow’s famous hierarchy of needs). In the past, most resources were spent on the basics like security, nourishment, clothing and warmth. Building on these foundations, some money may be available for things like education, and relationships. Finally there may be a little resource left for non-essentials covering aspects such as self-actualisation and creativity. In future, these non-essentials become the new essentials as people spend more money on fun, games, entertainment and the arts i.e. things that speak to their emotions.

Although maps are essential to the efficient management of the old essentials (particularly as the climate changes) it is likely that the most profitable applications will be associated with the new essentials. Examples might include augmented reality games where real reality of the outdoors is combined with the virtual reality of the computer world. Maps will be digitally displayed that are part of new mobile games and sports. People will move around with a digital bubble of geo-spatial information which will cause “magic” to happen when it intersects with other people’s bubbles or the bubbles associated with physical things. The magic could involve the delivery of various forms of multimedia (music, video clips etc). Clearly, new mobile devices like the Apple iPhone could be very important once positioning technology is bundled in.

Technical Challenges

There are many technical challenges for the future map industry. Firstly, moving from the 2D maps of the outdoors we have today, to 3D maps (that include embedded multimedia) that range indoors. Adding the dimension of time gives us 4D geospatial-temporal information spaces where dynamic events (e.g. a traffic jam) can be combined with more static information (e.g. the road section where the jam is occurring). Secondly, the issues of openness, concerning the sharing of information and trust and the availability of open APIs. Thirdly, the Web, which is already advancing using the APIs in user generated mash-ups, will continue to develop as the Semantic Web gathers pace making information more meaningful. This should lead to advancements in “machine learning” and artificial intelligence (which has always included research projects where mobile robots follow maps). As computer power increases then map information can become increasingly be automated in its creation, manipulation and its use.

Simplicity

The final challenge will be to make things simple for people who just want answers to problems and some fun with minimum hassle. Maps (which many people find difficult) are increasingly touching the lives of citizens but in some ways we need to make the GIS disappear so the clever software does all the work

Extract from the write up of “Arts & Business Workshop” (Hintlesham Hall, May 2007)

(for background/participants - see note at end of this article)

The first seminar of the conference was led by Robin Mannings of BT and concerned the relationship between art and technology. His assertion was that this relationship has been historically strong and symbiotic and that it will remain so. In an age where technology is advancing at a great pace, and emerging technologies such as nanotech, biotech, information technology and cognitive science promise to continually reshape the world, art can play a role in helping people come to terms with what is unfamiliar.

Technologies are increasingly eliminating geography and allowing for the distribution of information (including art) in ever more expansive and experiential ways. Computing is also becoming ubiquitous to the point of invisibility, just as the older technologies, like electricity, did before it. This type of computing, which includes sensor networks, public interactive media and personal computing, expands the tools available to artists. It also increasingly allows for amateurs to create and distribute their own works.

The impact of technology on categories and forms of art is no less important. Sculpture and painting will be influenced by robotics and new computer interfaces, such as wearable clothing (haptics). Architecture will be transformed by technology’s interaction with green issues to create new forms and with sensors and ubiquitous computing to create interactive environments. Music, dance and opera will benefit from technology enabling remote coaching, online participation, and the potential to develop new instruments. In literature and drama, science fiction may become science fact.

Art and technology can thus help each other in fundamental, reciprocal ways. Art can humanise technology, helping make the novel familiar, increasing the pleasure and effectiveness of the experience, and thus facilitating early and sustained adoption of new technologies. Technology, on the other hand, can potentially be used to release more resources for the practice of art, both in terms of freeing up time and creating new media. Consequently, people would have more time and opportunity to be creative, aiding in their own self-development. Mannings was adamant that companies like BT should help create the infrastructure for this to happen.

List of Key Technolgies

1. Tagging: Tagging is an information technology term referring to the assignment of a relevant keyword to a piece of content which may be textual, audio, visual, a website, blog etc. Tags are also referred to as metadata. Some of the more popular companies on the web that have pioneered tagging include del.icio.us, technorati, and photo-sharing site, Flickr.

2. Automatic tagging: A method of tagging whereby computer software recognises a piece of content and attaches a relevant description.

3. Social tagging: A method of tagging whereby users add their own tags to pieces of content.

4. RFID: Radio frequency identification is a method of identification. RFID tags are capable of storing and processing information and sending and receiving radio signals. The technology is currently used to track livestock, monitor stocking at supermarkets such as Wal-Mart.

5. Sensors and sensor networks: Sensor networks consist of sensors distributed within a space. They can be used to measure a range of phenomena, including temperature, sound, vibration, pressure, motion and pollutants. Given this scope, applications vary considerably, ranging from seismic detection, battlefield surveillance, inventory tracking and smart spaces.

6. Broadband: A telecommunications term implying high rates of data transmission, which in turn allow for the successful transfer and use of more data-heavy content such as video

Engineering Management June/July 2007

(slightly abridged and edited to correct the odd journalistic error! - sorry no url yet)

Computers are slowly invading every area of our lives and while they bring with them great power, they also come with great responsibility. Beverly La Ferla (from Engineering Management) talks to Robin Mannings, a futurologist at BT’s Adastral Park, whose job is to predict the future.

Robin Mannings is one of a team of futurologists and says they have an accuracy of over 80 per cent although it tends not to go above 85 per cent. “Everything is connected,” he says, “Our technology time line is surprisingly accurate even given the speed of technological change.”

He explains that the way in which technology is created has changed dramatically over the last decade: “Before, corporate technology was top of the technology pyramid - big companies did the research and also created the market for it. Now, consumers have better phones than most employees and kids have even better phones than their parents. It’s entirely in reverse.”

The power of consumers created what is know as the text messaging (or SMS messaging) phenomenon. Mobile phones were originally developed for busy executives to be able to talk to each other on the move and the SMS service was “thrown in as an afterthought” late in the standardisation process - perhaps to be used for directory enquires or to indicate an answer-phone message was wailting. Today. it’s probably as popular, if not more so, than voice calls especially with yound people.

“The reason text messaging became so big was because of people’s emotions. People will spend money where their emotions are involved. It’s also an indication of where people will spend money in the future,” says Mannings. You get a point where people have enough to eat, are healthy, and have excess money and they want to spend that excess on self-actualisation and their well-being,”

Ubiquitous computing is pretty much here - computers are everywhere. From the home to the workplace and the shops BT alone does 300 million transactions online a day, but being surrounded by computers doesn’t mean everyone likes or even wants them. I bet even you get least one or two gadgets that you’ve bought but never used because you can’t face getting the manual out (digital camera for Christmas, anyone?)

“People want more simplicity to counter all the demands they have on them today.” says Mannings, “There’s a societal shift happening which is blurring the lines between work and home. People are living longer and having more relationships in their lives and all this puts more pressure on them to cope with it all. The challenge- our challenge- is to make technology disappear.”

The type of technology he’s talking about labour changing everyday items to increase their functionality - such as making ’smart furniture’ which allows you to charge your mobile phone or laptop through the surface of the table by simply resting or laying the device on it. Or pill packets that beep to tell you to take your tablets, ask you to fill in questionnaires on how you’re feeling, and then tell the chemist you need a repeat prescription when it’s empty. Mannings even proposes integrating motion sensors into the fabric of school chairs so teachers can tell when a pupil is bored by the lesson and step up the pace, or tagging hospital patients so doctors know where they are at all times.

Mannings also talks with great enthusiasm about the revolution in decorating that computers could bring to the house: “There will be a revolution in lighting. Walls will become displays and you will be able to change your wallpaper whenever you want by changing the software,” he says.

The spread of computer power doesn’t stop at housing though - implanting chips into blind or deaf patients is becoming commonplace but how many of would jump at the chance to have a bio-sensor implanted if it could detect the early signs of cancer? Or a chip set into our teeth to report the spread of decay?

“We don’t want to create technology to replace human beings but make humans more effective humans.” he says. “As technology grows and artificial intelligence gets better, we could conceivably start to replace some human workers. This may even be necessary as the care society also grows and people live longer but are unable to work. But while machines do some things better than humans they don’t do other things at all well.”

“The brain is still the world’s best computer and we still don’t know how it works” says Mannings. “There’s a big fuss at the moment about quantum computing but I think that biological computing is more likely to happen and will be bigger.”