Futurology is not well defined but my view is that futurology is the about study of the future. Some people try to live the future and are Futurists and others try to forecast and predict. What does one need? An open mind above all, together with a good general knowledge of science, maths and the humanities especially history. It is worth remembering that the basis of the scientific method is the idea of using new evidence to prove established ideas false. This implies that one should not have fixed ideas but always be open minded about what might emerge provided it is based on sound evidence.
Here are some personal notes collected over the last few years based on my own experience - in no particular order.
- When will something new be available? Some new things can happen at anytime (eg an asteroid strike) but others are based on a time line, with steps on the way (eg exploration of Mars).
- Never forget ideas - even seemingly bad ones might be useful at a later date. Revisit the ideas after a time (perhaps a year or two). Many innovations have been thought of a long time before they have great significance.
- Once established an idea can grow exponentially fast (because people copy people, who copy people - i.e. there is a power law at work). Network effects amplify activities - and there are many types of current networks (roads, railways, computers, telephones, knowledge, social ...) and many yet to come.
- Most businesses evolve what they do by small improvements. The really big changes, however, come from revolutions not evolution. These take people out their experience comfort zones and are by nature unpredictable - the stuff of risk takers, entrepreneurs and geeks/nerds/boffins et al. In nature's evolution, it is survival by the most adaptable species.
- It helps to start a team brainstorm with presentation about the broader context of the future to get people thinking more broadly
- Management Curse - getting better at doing the wrong things. It pays to think strategically (long term) rather than tactically (for the short term i.e. the immediate problems).
- Disruptive Technology - innovations that disrupt existing markets (e.g. lowering prices or offering different value proposition). These are unexpected and may come from areas other than traditional competitors.
- Easy to predict technology and science, harder to predict business and economics, almost impossible to predict people and society.
- Beware Black Swans. (Taleb) By definition swans were white (until black ones were found when Australia was discovered). Keep an open mind and be aware that in general we know less than we think we know (applies especially to senior people in high positions). Be aware (to quote Donald Rumsfeld) of “unknown unknowns”.
- New things are often over hyped and consequences exaggerated - then when this is exposed (bubble bursts) the trend goes to opposite extreme and it is ignored whilst it slowly gains ground to become even more significant. The lesson is that new things take time to mature and massive returns may be slow at first.
- Interesting things happen at the boundary between disciplines. Professions and disciplines get stuck in ruts but new things cross existing boundaries and start whole new areas.
- Great new products and services (eg Apple’s iPhone and iTunes) can have 3 aspects: excellent technology (so it works well) with appealing design (so people want it) and new business models (so new money can be made).
- History can repeat its self and biblical quote “there is nothing new thing under the sun” is wrong.
- Most futures have two aspects - the predictable (basis of trend analysis) and the random. It helps to try to quantify each part.
- Futures and be explored by finding firstly, what is possible, then scoring the possible by its probability. Bayean analysis may be useful - this non-frequentist approach to statistics breaks the rule that says probabilities leading to a hypothesis must sum to 1. Prior knowledge can lead to a score > 1.
- Beware of asking for the opinions of known experts and then looking for consensus. This well used technique will be safe but will probably not produce radical or really new ideas (since experts tend to copy, extend and cite each other's work - this is the basis of the Scientific Method). Perhaps it is better to look out for exceptions to the consensus and also to ask non-experts provided they are well informed across a broad range of knowledge areas. A balance has to be found between those who know everything about almost nothing and those who know almost nothing about almost everything!
- Many new concepts if pushed far tend to raise issues of philosophy. Philosophy is perhaps the one area of knowledge that spans everything and to which every area is a sub-set.
- Technology and Science have a blurred boundary as do The Arts and Entertainment. Technology can be about the application of science and good art and entertainment often need excellent supporting technology. Scientific research is likely to be important to almost everything in the future.
- The hot topics in science research currently given some acronyms: NBIC (Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, Infomation Technology and Cognitive Science), GNR (Genetics, Nanotechnology and Robotics), BANG (Bits Atoms Neurons and Genes).
- Alternative Technology: innovations very useful for the future but based on traditional materials, crafts and lifestyles. Not to be ignored and maybe the basis for a more sustainable future.
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