We apply techniques in quantitative conservation ecology, probabilistic risk assessment and decision theory to answer questions about the impacts of global change on biodiversity. In particular, we use population and species distribution models, mathematical treatments of uncertainty and decision-making techniques to shed light on the impacts of climate change, altered disturbance regimes, land-use change and other agents of global change on native biota in the face of risk and uncertainty. We focus on methodological issues of these techniques, the practicalities of their application and their interpretation for management. We work on both plants and animals and at a range of ecological scales and levels of biological organization—from individuals to ecosystems, from patches to bioregions, and across interdisciplinary boundaries.

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