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Pär Österholm's research

Present position:

Senior Economist, Sveriges Riksbank

Academic degrees:

Associate Professor (Docent), Uppsala University, 2010

PhD (Fil Dr) Economics, Uppsala University, 2004

BA (Pol Mag) Economics, Uppsala University, 1999

Publications in refereed journals:

Beechey, M. and Österholm, P. (2011), "The Rise and Fall of U.S. Inflation Persistence", Forthcoming in International Journal of Central Banking.

Österholm, P. (2011), "The Limited Usefulness of Macroeconomic Bayesian VARs when Forecasting the Probability of a US Recession", Forthcoming in Journal of Macroeconomics.

Jonsson, T. and Österholm, P. (2011), "The Properties of Survey-Based Inflation Expectations in Sweden", Forthcoming in Empirical Economics.

Jonsson, T. and Österholm, P. (2011), "The Forecasting Properties of Survey-Based Wage-Growth Expectations", Economics Letters 113 (3), 276-281.

Berger, H. and Österholm, P. (2011), "Does Money Matter for U.S. Inflation? Evidence from Bayesian VARs", CESifo Economic Studies 57 (3), 531-550.

Dale, S., Orphanides, A. and Österholm, P. (2011), "Imperfect Central Bank Communication - Information versus Distraction", International Journal of Central Banking 7 (2), 3-39.

Berger, H. and Österholm, P. (2011), “Does Money Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out-of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs”, Economic Record 87 (276), 45-60.

Gustavsson, M. and Österholm, P. (2011), “Mean Reversion in the US Unemployment Rate – Evidence from Bootstrapped out-of-Sample Forecasts”, Applied Economics Letters 18 (7), 643-646.

Mossfeldt, M. and Österholm, P. (2011), “The Persistent Labour-Market Effects of the Financial Crisis”, Applied Economics Letters 18 (7), 637-642.

Abrego, L. and Österholm, P. (2010), “External Linkages and Economic Growth in Colombia: Insights from a Bayesian VAR Model”, World Economy 33 (12), 1788-1810.

Beechey, M. and Österholm, P. (2010), “Forecasting Inflation in an Inflation Targeting Regime: A Role for Informative Steady-State Priors”, International Journal of Forecasting 26 (2), 248-264.

Hjalmarsson, E. and Österholm, P. (2010), "Testing for Cointegration Using the Johansen Methodology when Variables Are Near Integrated: Size Distortions and Partial Remedies", Empirical Economics 39 (1), 51-76.

Gustavsson, M. and Österholm, P. (2010), "The Presence of Unemployment Hysteresis in the OECD: What Can We Learn from Out-of-Sample Forecasts?", Empirical Economics 38 (3), 779-792.

Österholm, P. (2010), "Improving Unemployment Rate Forecasts Using Survey Data", Finnish Economic Papers 23 (1), 16-26.

Österholm, P. (2010), "Unemployment and Labour-Force Participation in Sweden", Economics Letters 106 (3), 205-208.

Österholm, P. (2010), “The Effect on the Swedish Real Economy of the Financial Crisis”, Applied Financial Economics 20 (4), 265-274.

Österholm, P. (2009), "Incorporating Judgement in Fan Charts", Scandinavian Journal of Economics 111 (2), 387-415.

Beechey, M., Hjalmarsson, E. and Österholm, P. (2009), "Testing the Expectations Hypothesis when Interest Rates Are Near Integrated", Journal of Banking and Finance 33 (5), 934-943.

Österholm, P. (2009), “The Time-Series Properties of Norwegian Inflation and Nominal Interest Rate”, Applied Economics 41 (10), 1303-1309.

Berger, H. and Österholm, P. (2009), “Does Money Still Matter for U.S. Output?”, Economics Letters 102 (3), 143-146.

Beechey, M. and Österholm, P. (2009), “Time-Varying Inflation Persistence in the Euro Area”, Economic Modelling 26 (2), 532-535.

Beechey, M. and Österholm, P. (2008), “A Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Model with Informative Steady-State Priors for the Australian Economy”, Economic Record 84 (4), 449-465.

Österholm, P. and Zettelmeyer, J. (2008), "The Effect of External Conditions on Growth in Latin America", IMF Staff Papers 55 (4), 595-623.

Österholm, P. (2008), "Can Forecasting Performance Be Improved by Considering the Steady State? An Application to Swedish Inflation and Interest Rate", Journal of Forecasting 27 (1), 41-51.

Beechey, M. and Österholm, P. (2008), "Revisiting the Uncertain Unit Root in GDP and CPI: Testing for Non-Linear Trend Reversion", Economics Letters 100 (2), 221-223.

Österholm, P. (2008), "A Structural Bayesian VAR for Model-Based Fan Charts", Applied Economics 40 (12), 1557-1569.

Gustavsson, M. and Österholm, P. (2007), "Does Unemployment Hysteresis Equal Employment Hysteresis?", Economic Record 83 (2), 159-173.

Gustavsson, M. and Österholm, P. (2006), “The Informational Value of Unemployment Statistics: A Note on the Time Series Properties of Participation Rates”, Economics Letters 92 (3), 428-433.

Gustavsson, M. and Österholm, P. (2006), “Hysteresis and Non-Linearities in Unemployment Rates”, Applied Economics Letters 13 (9), 545-548.

Andersson, A. and Österholm, P. (2006), “Population Age Structure and Real Exchange Rates in the OECD”, International Economic Journal 20 (1), 1-18.

Österholm, P. (2005), “The Taylor Rule: A Spurious Regression?”, Bulletin of Economic Research 57 (3), 217-247.

Österholm, P. (2005), “The Taylor Rule and Real-Time Data – A Critical Appraisal”, Applied Economics Letters 12 (11), 679-685.

Andersson, A. and Österholm, P. (2005), “Forecasting Real Exchange Rate Trends Using Age Structure Data – The Case of Sweden”, Applied Economics Letters 12 (5) 267-272.

Österholm, P. (2004), “Testing for Hysteresis in Nordic Unemployment Using the Johansen Likelihood Ratio Test for Cointegration”, Applied Economics Quarterly 50 (3), 249-260.

Österholm, P. (2004), “Size Properties of Cointegration Tests in Misspecified Systems”, Applied Economics Letters 11 (15), 919-924.

Österholm, P. (2004), “Mean Reversion in Swedish Macroeconomic Time Series – Evidence Using a New Panel Data Approach”, European Review of Economics and Finance 3 (4), 23-36.

Österholm, P. (2004), ”Killing Four Unit Root Birds in the US Economy with Three Panel Unit Root Test Stones”, Applied Economics Letters 11 (4), 213-216.