Conventional wisdom says that you can really only grade a draft after a minimum of three years, which is generally considered the right amount of time for a player to develop and begin to contribute significantly in the NFL. Of course, there are always the instant impact rookies, like Matt Ryan or Adrian Peterson, who surprise all of us with huge seasons in their first year in the NFL, but those are usually anomalies in the NFL landscape. More often than not, it does take a player about three years to develop in the league, as we have seen with players like Braylon Edwards, Roddy White, Philip Rivers or Lee Evans.

 

Here's how I see the 2006 first round picks on whether they have transitioned successfully to the NFL, or busted. A pick earns a "Panning Out" verdict if he has begun to be an important part of his team, or a "Bust" label if he has failed to become anything of note for the team that drafted him.

 

>Quite possibly the most second guessed first overall pick ever, former Texans GM Charlie Casserly was skewered for this pick, as he passed on the supposedly unpassable Reggie Bush with the first selection in the 2006 Draft. However, three years down the road, Casserly looks like a genius. Williams has developed into one of the top ends in the game, registering consecutive double-digit sack seasons the last two years. A massive edge rusher who can pass rush from either side of the line while also sealing the edge in the run game, Williams has earned his spot as the top pick in the 2006 draft (while also vindicating the initially maligned and ridiculed Casserly).

 

> After Houston passed on one of the best players in college football history, the Saints wasted no time in snapping him up with the second overall pick. However, even after three years, its tough to get a read on what type of player Bush is. He's incredibly fast, and versatile but he has busted at his listed position of running back. Injuries have plagued him since his sophomore year, which may in fact contribute to the fact that he's never rushed for 1,000 yards in a season or even for 100 yards in a single game. But, due to his incredible physical tools and versatility as a football player, Bush provides a great pass catching and punt return threat for the quick strike Saints, who have tried their best to squeeze the most out of Bust. But my guess is that he would have busted on any other team, as he probably would have been used solely as a runner, something he isn't all that adept at.

 

> Hailed as the next Michael Vick, Young was taken over USC QB Matt Leinart for his playmaking ability. He dazzled in his first year, nearly leading the Titans to the playoffs and winning Rookie of the Year honors. His second year he led the Titans to a wild card berth, but lost to the Chargers in the first round. His 2008 season was derailed by a knee injury, which allowed journeyman backup Kerry Collins to take the reins and lead the Titans to the AFC's best record as Young watched from the sidelines. All this makes Young tough to grade, as he has had success, but did finish his third year on the bench. Questions have lingered about Young's ability as a passer, but there is the glaring fact that Tennessee never gave Young much to work with, even when they asked him in his second year to scramble less and throw more. He still remains Tennessee's quarterback of the future, and was the right pick at the time.

 

> Billed as the safest pick in the draft, and with the Jets needing to rebuild their line after the departure of Jason Fabini, Randy Thomas, and perenial Pro Bowl center Kevin Mawae everything fell perfectly in place for the Jets to get there man here. Ferguson opened the 2006 season as the Jets' starter at left tackle, and he's stayed there ever since. Though he struggled his rookie season, Ferguson has progressively improved each year, allowing fewer and fewer sacks all while being becoming a solid run blocker for one of the AFC's best rushing teams.

 

> Green Bay came into the draft needing a linebacker, and got the best one of the 2006 class with Hawk. And so far, Hawk has lived up to that assessment. He's a tackling machine, leading the Packers in that category his rookie year and his third year (he finished second on the team in tackles in 2007 to Nick Barnett), providing a steady defensive presence.

 

> Vernon Davis has all the measurables coming into the draft, which led to his high selection. But through three years, he has yet to produce significantly, scoring only 8 touchdowns. Part of this could be attributed to San Francisco's instability at the quarterback position, but the fact still remains that Davis has yet to live up to his status as the #6 overall draft pick

 

> Another first round defensive back taken by Al "I love track stars" Davis, who probably ignored Huff's football ability for the fact that he once ran the 100 yard dash in 10.4 seconds at the USATF Junior National Championships. Huff has one career interception, and was benched mid season in favor of Hiram Eugene in 2008.

 

> Certainly not the flashiest player on this list, Whitner has quietly developed into a solid backfield contributor for the Bills, registering over 250 tackles for the Bills while playing from the strong safety position. While he was still a reach at #8 overall, and has only 2 career interceptions, Whitner is still a stable fixture for a developing Bills team.

 

> One of the few picks that Matt Millen got right. Sims has led the Lions in tackles in two of the last three years, while amassing the most total tackles on the team over that span.

 

> Surprisingly, 2005 Heisman Trophy winner Matt Leinart slipped all the way to #10, where the Cardinals, in desperate need of a franchise QB after years of futility, jumped on him. No one knew it then, but in 2006 the Cardinals got the QB who would lead them to the Super Bowl. Only it wasn't Leinart; it was Kurt Warner, who was signed as a mentor to Leinart. Unlike fellow 2006 draftee Vince Young, Matt Leinart was given all the tools to succeed, with Pro Bowl WRs Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin at his disposal, but a lack of arm strength and an inability to outplay the aging Warner led to a spot on the bench for the USC alum. Arizona made the Super Bowl in 2008 under Warner, which resulted in his resigning for an additional two years (a deal which, conveniently enough, will end just as Leinart becomes a free agent). My guess is that Leinart will finish his stint in the desert without ever becoming the starting quarterback.

 

> Cutler was less hyped than the two signal callers taken before him, but was a better pure passer, and at the end of the 2008 season was regarded as one of the bright young stars in the NFL after being named to the Pro Bowl. His great arm strength, mobility an pocket presence led people to believe he was the guy Denver had been looking for ever since John Elway retired in 1999.  He was, until new head coach Josh McDaniels alienated him by attempting to trade him for Matt Cassel. Understandably disheartened with his new situation in Denver, Cutler requested a trade, which ultimately resulted in a massive transaction that sent Cutler to Chicago, leaving Denver once again in search of a franchise QB.

 

> Ray Lewis campaigned for a new big man to keep blockers off him, and he got his wish with Ngata. The 345 pound matchup nightmare lines up at both nose tackle and defensive end for the Ravens, wreaking havoc with opposing offenses while freeing up the rest of the defense for big plays.

 

> Wimbley was the second rated pass rusher after Mario Williams, but he still slid all the way to #12, where the Browns traded to get him. Wimbley wasted no time making an impact in his rookie year, amassing 12 sacks his first year. However, things went down hill from there, as his combined sack total from the last two years (9) doesn't even match the total from his rookie year. He likely won't see an improvement this year, as Eric Mangini's pass rushing scheme usually relies on manufacturing a rush with schemes and calls, rather than from harnessing an individual player's talents.

 

> Andy Reid has a penchant for drafting big lineman on both sides of the ball, with often mixed results. Bunkley however, has panned out nicely over the last few years. He's a massive nose tackle who teams with fellow first round pick Mike Patterson to wall off the interior of the run defense, and free up blitzers in Jim Johnson's pressure heavy scheme.

 

> Hill is an undersized but blazingly fast corner, but has yet to live up to his status as a first round pick. He was benched in 2008, and has been unable to stay healthy the last two years, finishing both 2007 and 2008 on injured reserve. He also only has four career interceptions, a dismal total for a first round cornerback.

 

> Five career interceptions has led Miami to wear thin on patience for Allen. They spent most of the offseason upgrading the secondary, including signing FS Gibril Wilson, extending CB Will Allen two years, and using their first round pick on Illinois CB Vontae Davis. Allen has yet to make much of an impact, as has likely seen his window in Miami pass by him.

 

> After missing his rookie season with an injury, Greenway has rapidly become one of the top young linebackers in the league, registering two consecutive 100+ tackle seasons, including leading the Vikings in stops with 115  in 2008 to go along with 6 sacks.

 

> Carpenter has struggled to make an impact his first three years, as he has yet to dent the starting line up. Carpenter only has 50 career tackles and 2 career sacks (both of which came his rookie year). Dallas spent their top pick this year on an inside linebacker (Jason Williams), which may mean Carpenter's time in Dallas is running low.

 

 

> Though he played substandardly in 2008, it was later revealed that he played the season with a fractured hip. When he played at full strength in 2007, he was an unstoppable force, registering 10 interceptions, a Pro Bowl nod, and he set the record for the longest play in NFL history with a 109 yard return of a missed field goal. 

 

> Hali is a good pass rushing left end, who benefitted his first two year playing across from Jared Allen. However, when he was switched to right end in order to be the featured pass rusher in the wake of Allen's departure, Hali and the entire Kansas City pass rush suffered, as the team managed an NFL record-low 10 sacks in 2008. With the team transitioning to the 3-4 in 2009, Hali might not have a place in the Chiefs' future.

 

> Maroney's lack of speed and struggles with injuries have hampered his career. He isn't heavily relied on in New England's pass happy offense, but when he has been featured the results have been rather lackluster. In 2008 New England got better production from undrafted rookie BenJarvus Green-Ellis after Maroney was placed on injured reserve, so Maroney's future may not be so bright in Foxborough.

 

> Suffice it to say, Lawson has not fared nearly as well as fellow Wolfpack alum and 2006 draftee Mario Williams. Lawson missed all of 2007 due to injury, and he has only 5 career sacks. Too bad neither 49er first rounder has panned out.

 

> A Pro Bowler in only his second season, Joseph is a key young cog on Tampa Bay's powerfully rebuilt offensive line.

 

> Joseph stepped right in and became Cincinnati's number one corner in 2006. He's managed only 5 career interceptions, but he is a solid cover corner and makes a lot of plays, and has seen less action because teams have begun to shy away from him. Paired with 2007 first round pick Leon Hall, they form one of the top young corner duos in the league.

 

> A fast, versatile threat for the Steelers, Holmes showed everyone just what he could do in the playoffs last year, scoring a touchdown on a punt return, and winning Super Bowl MVP honors with a spectacular 9 catch, 131 yard performance capped by the game winning touchdown in the final minute.

 

> The third N.C. State player taken in the first round, McCargo has unfortunately fallen into the same category as Manny Lawso rather than Mario Williams. McCargo was beaten out by 5th rounder Kyle Williams for one a starting defensive tackle spot, and has continued to slide into mediocrity. Buffalo attempted to trade him to Indianapolis last year, but the trade was voided after McCargo failed his physical. Through 3 years, McCargo has 35 total tackles, lowlighting in a 0 tackle season in 2008.

 

> DeAngelo Williams contributed well his first two years sharing carries with DeShaun Foster, rushing for 1,217 yards his first two years with 5 touchdowns. But his third year, when he was moved into the starting role with rookie Johnathan Stewart spelling him, Williams exploded for a career year. He ran for a career high 1,515 yards while scoring a phenomenal 20 total touchdowns (18 rushing, 2 receiving).

 

> The entire Jacksonville receiving corps is a bust, Lewis obviously included. He's never had more than 41 catches or two touchdowns in a season, and his career stats check in at a mediocre 91 catches, 1,006 yards and 5 touchdowns.

 

> Recently rated as the top center in the NFL by Sporting News, Mangold made his first Pro Bowl following the 2008 season, and anchors one of the best offensive lines in the league. A solid interior pass protector and a forceful run blocker, Mangold has started every game since opening day of his rookie season.

 

> Addai has issues with injuries and speed, but is still one of the better backs in the league. He was hampered by an injury in 2008, but strung together 1,000 yard seasons his first two years in the league, and has 30 total touchdowns in his career. Speedy rookie Donald Brown will help ese the load off Addai and keep him fresher.

 

> Jennings has played in every game the last three seasons and has become a solid tackler, but he only has career interception and 23 career starts. He was benched in 2008 in favor of 2007 second round pick Josh Wilson.

 

> Kiwanuka has been shifted all over the edges in order to accomodate other players, but he always seems to be productive. He has increased his sack total every year, and had a career high 8 last year. He'll likely get on the field in more situations with Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora in order to increase his chances at getting a favorable pass rushing matchup.