Real Time Probabilities of Recession
Current Economic Situation:
Probability of Recession in November 2011 is:
7.2%
U.S. Recession ended in June 2009
Probabilites of recession have been below 50% since 07/2009. They increased from around 5% to around 25% mid last year, but have decreased o less than 10% in the last few months.
Below are the smoothed probabilities of recession, recursively estimated every month
___________________________________________________________
(As of 02/09/12, data available up to 11/11)
Month Probability of Recession Recession Index
(%)
| 2007 October |
41.9 |
|
|
0.08 |
| November |
|
48.5 |
|
|
0.86 |
| December |
58.2 |
|
|
0.77 |
| 2008 January |
74.8 |
|
|
1.05 |
| February |
|
89.7 |
|
|
0.37 |
| March |
|
95.5 |
|
|
-0.14 |
| April |
|
97.1 |
|
|
-1.10 |
| May |
|
98.8 |
|
|
-1.18 |
| June |
|
99.4 |
|
|
-1.23 |
| July |
|
99.7 |
|
|
-1.56 |
| August |
|
99.8 |
|
|
-1.46 |
| September |
99.9 |
|
|
-3.53 |
| October |
|
98.4 |
|
|
-0.42 |
| November |
|
99.8 |
|
|
-1.67 |
| December |
|
100.0 |
|
|
-3.76 |
| 2009 January |
99.9 |
|
|
-5.20 |
| February |
|
98.1 |
|
|
-3.55 |
| March |
|
98.8 |
|
|
-3.37 |
| April |
|
91.6 |
|
|
-1.77 |
| May |
|
91.8 |
|
|
-1.46 |
| June |
|
54.8 |
|
|
-1.70 |
| July |
|
42.0 |
|
|
-0.13 |
| August |
|
32.4 |
|
|
-0.27 |
| September |
34.6 |
|
|
-0.61 |
| October |
|
29.3 |
|
|
-0.56 |
| November |
|
24.3 |
|
|
0.76 |
| December |
|
15.7 |
|
|
1.02 |
| 2010 January |
11.7 |
|
|
1.34 |
| February |
|
10.7 |
|
|
0.93 |
| March |
|
3.4 |
|
|
1.56 |
| April |
|
1.1 |
|
|
2.07 |
| May |
|
0.9 |
|
|
2.16 |
| June |
|
4.8 |
|
|
0.89 |
| July |
|
3.1 |
|
|
1.24 |
| August |
|
5.3 |
|
|
0.80 |
| September |
9.2 |
|
|
0.42 |
| October |
|
10.4 |
|
|
0.48 |
| November |
|
11.6 |
|
|
0.47 |
| December |
|
3.7 |
|
|
1.42 |
| 2011 January |
0.6 |
|
|
2.49 |
| February |
|
6.4 |
|
|
0.73 |
| March |
|
3.8 |
|
|
1.16 |
| April |
|
26.1 |
|
|
-0.22 |
| May |
|
22.6 |
|
|
0.36 |
| June |
|
24.4 |
|
|
0.58 |
| July |
|
17.8 |
|
|
0.73 |
| August |
|
14.7 |
|
|
0.35 |
| September |
10.5 |
|
|
0.71 |
| October |
|
2.4 |
|
|
1.73 |
| November |
|
7.2 |
|
|
0.66 |
For more details see: CREFC
Center for Research on Economic and Financial Cycles
NEW:
| 
