Winter Weather Predicting Introduction Predicting the weather is not an easy propostion. And, predicting the type of winter a region will have – particularly a winter in a region like New England where the weather is diverse and subject to change – is particularly challenging. There is no exact science to predicting a "winter", although some almanacs might have you believe otherwise. However, here are some of the ideas that people use when trying to put together winter predicting. Feel free to peruse and enjoy. There is no necessary authenticity or accuracy to these predicting tools. The compilation is rather a collection of some of the more unique aspects of winter weather predicting. When will the first frost strike? Generally, New England states can expect to get the first frost around October 15 (or sometime afterward). However, according to some legends, the first killing frost will come 90 days (to the day) after the first katydids start singing. Others say the first frost will appear exactly six months (to the day) after the first thunderstorm has passed through an area. Will it be a snowy winter? It is always hard to guage the snowiness of winter. Some natural clues can help us (sometimes) make a prediction. For example, a wooly bear catepillar (also known as a Palmer worm and a wandering monk) seems to have a large, middle band of brown color, when the snowfall is expected to be larger (although, the narrower the band, the colder the temperatures). Acorns also seem to be more abundant when larger snowfalls are in the offing (unless, of course, the oak trees are struck by diseases or pests). Some other methods for detecting how much snow a place will have. • The number of mornings there is fog in August – some people say – is the number of snowy days there will be in the following winter. • According to some nature observers, beavers build larger, sturdier lodges when a snowy (and cold) winter is expected. • Count the number of days between the first snowfall and the following New Moon. This – some people say – will be the number of snowy days that winter. • If you see the hair on horses and bears appearing thick early in spring then – some think– prepare for a snowy winter. • Count the number of days between the first snowfall and Christmas Day. Some people claim that this is the same number of days there will be snow. Will we have a tough, cold winter? This is always another good question with no exact answer. However, according to folklorists, there seems to be some ways to look at nature for a hint. Some ways they look for assistance: • Watch to see how far a squirrel buries its acorns. The deeper the hole, the colder the winter. • If hornets build nests near the ground, expect a harsher winter. • Double check the moss that is growing on the south side of a tree. More moss means – you guessed it – a rough winter. • If you see caterpillars appear in late autumun, some claim that it will make for a mild winter. • Any fruit trees that have a double season are claimed to foretell a hard winter, too. • Autumn leaves that don't seem to want to fall hint at – you probably can tell – a cold winter. Resources: Minibeast Folklore (//members.aol.com/YESedu/folklore.html) The Natural Almanac (www.naturalalmanac.com) Weather World's Weather Folklore (/members.aol.com/Accustiver/wxworld_folk.html) |