What’s the Issue?

At the heart of the issue is Iran’s uranium enrichment program, which has fallen afoul of the U.N. While Iran says that it is enriching uranium only for domestic energy production, the United Nations Security Council has disagreed, slapping sanctions on Iran at the end of 2006 and beginning of 2007 for failing to halt the program.

Many nations in the world are world are uneasy about Iran becoming a nuclear armed state. Israel has been the recipient of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s ire, and other countries in the neighborhood fear not only the prospect of nuclear weapons in their region, but also the ignition of a nuclear arms race.

While some people agree that a nuclear-armed Iran is a threat, they disagree as to whether Iran’s current nuclear enrichment program would get them to a weapon any time soon. The difference between enrichment for power plants and enrichment for nuclear weapons is the percentage of U-235 in the highly enriched uranium. For power plants, the percentage is about 3.5%. For nuclear weapons, it is 90%. To get from power-plant level U-235 to nuclear-weapon level U-235 takes about five years. The real question is where is Iran in this process? Which leads to intelligence. After botched or misleading intelligence led to the ongoing adventure in Iraq, the Bush “boy who cried wolf” Administration will need to demonstrate beyond reasonable doubt that the intelligence it has is indeed accurate.  The release of the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate Report on Iran's nuclear program seemed to back down on the 2005 report's more dire stance.  However, the report indicates that Iran could have enough fissile material for a weapon by 2009, though 2010-2015 seems more likely. 

There are a few other issues at play as well, including Iranian sponsorship of terrorism, primarily in Iraq but elsewhere as well. Cross-border attacks by Iranians supporting their fellow Shi’ites in Iraq could prove harmful enough, or enough of a justification, to prompt a counter-attack. Should the administration want to use military force in Iran, one could expect that sponsorship of terrorism, as well as nuclear ambitions, will be justification.

Why Should I Care?
Both domestic and global security could be at stake should Iran gain a nuclear weapon, regardless if it chooses to use it. If it does choose to use it, the world will likely have a very nasty conflict. But even if Iran develops a weapon and doesn’t use it, the act of acquiring such a weapon will likely fuel a nuclear arms race within the region as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt could be possible contenders for joining the club.

Secondly, any action taken against Iran by the U.S. would stretch the currently overly engaged troops even more. With Iraq not going well, and Afghanistan taking a turn for the worse, troops are likely to be engaged in those countries for some time. The U.S. is currently dependent on an all-volunteer army. While it seems unlikely that the government would instate the draft, it is a possibility worth considering.

What Are the Candidates Saying?