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Keeping It In Perspective... See how the current economic data really compare with the past - INSTITUTE OF SUPPLY MANAGEMENT - Manufacturing Report ************************************ See more information on our Business Cycle Indicator in our first website post from April 4, 2007:
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January 27, 2012
Total Debt
In September the Total Debt of the Non-Financial Sectors, in real dollars per capita, declined for the sixth consecutive month, the rate of decline increasing to 0.94%. Since 1947 we have seen a period of decline only once in this statistic that wasn't also accompanied by a recession. We may escape a serious downturn for a while but continued expansion in 2012 is extremely unlikely, especially when you consider the high level of inventories. See the charts...
- Van Schaik
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January 24, 2012
The Trend Is Clear...
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January 21, 2012
Consumer Sentiment
January's Preliminary Consumer Sentiment reading jumped to 74.0. Celebrate if you wish but remember historically 74.0 is still recession territory. See the charts and see if you agree.
- Van Schaik
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January 18, 2012
Capacity Utilization
Two and a half years after the recession's official end and Capacity Utilization is still floundering below 80%. No wonder cash laden corporations are buying back their own stocks with their surplus funds instead of investing in real production. See the charts here.
- Van Schaik
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January 13, 2012
Retail Sales
Retail Sales have been updated for December. They still have a long way to go in real dollars per capita to get back to pre-recession levels. Take a look at the charts...
- Van Schaik
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January 12, 2012
Total Manufacturing Inventories
Total Manufacturing Inventories continued to expand in November, albeit at a slower pace. Still, it is hard to envision a scenario of an energetic economic expansion in the near future with the current level of inventories and consumers once again keeping such a tight grip on their pocketbooks and wallets. Check out the charts below...
-Van Schaik
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January 8, 2012
Employment/Unemployment
The employment/unemployment charts have been updated with the December data. Eleven charts provide a variety of views of the job market. Take a look...
- Van Schaik
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January 8, 2012
Federal Employment
Think an unproductive bloated Federal bureaucracy is behind our economic problems? In reality the percent of our total population employed by our Federal Government hasn't been this low since December 1940.
- Van Schaik
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January 5, 2012
Consumer Sentiment
2011's final reading for Consumer Sentiment hit 69.9, up from December's preliminary 67.7 and well above November's 64.1. Sign of a recovering economy? Keep the champagne corked: Historically 69.9 is still in serious recession territory. Take a look at the charts and keep the facts in perspective...
- Van Schaik
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January 4, 2012
ISM Manufacturing Report
The ISM Manufacturing Index hit 52.7 in November. It has been flirting with 50, that tiny spot between expansion and contraction, since July 2011 but it is still indicating expansion. Barely... Take a look at the long and short term charts.
- Van Schaik
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January 1, 2012
Retail Sales
Retail Sales grew 6.8% year over year in November, its slowest annual rate since August 2010. In real dollars per capita Retail Sales expanded 2.5% year over year. Take a look at the four charts...
- Van Schaik
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Copyright 2012 - John Paul Jones ********************************************************************************************* December 19, 2011
Consumer Sentiment
Consumer Sentiment hit 67.4 in December's preliminary reading. Take a look at the charts and temper your enthusiasm: It's still well below May 2011's 74.3 and, when viewed with a long term perspective, not out of recession territory.
- Van Schaik
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November 27, 2011
Industrial Production
The Industrial Production Index fell slightly in October, to 94.5 from 94.8, but still grew 3.9% year over year. The recent chart pattern looks a lot like the early 1980's with the double recession. Take a look and see if you agree...
- Van Schaik
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November 24, 2011
Debt... and Our Economic Future
Total Debt of the Non-Financial Sectors in Real Dollars per Capita declined year over year the past months. Take a look at the chart: Declines, or even low growth, tend to result in recessions. History shows there can be false negatives and, for now, I think this is one. But robust growth in 2012 is out of the question unless we change our present attitudes regarding spending and debt. That is unlikely.
- Van Schaik
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Novenber 24, 2011
GDP
Real GDP per Capita is still heading lower, percent change year over year. Take a look at the trend.
- Van Schaik
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November 23, 2011
Capacity Utilization
Capacity Utilization improved in October, up to 77.76, but it's still suffering its post recession blues. I don't think it can break 80% in this business cycle.
If nothing else, Capacity Utilization is one of the best indicators for predicting a recession's end.
See the charts here.
- Van Schaik
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November 22, 2011
Exports/Imports
The updated Export/Import Charts below tell a tale. Sure, it boosts our economy a bit when we export more and import less but imports are not our primary problem. Imports less exports are only about one third of one per cent of our total economy. Check out the import gap in the GDP plus Imports and GDP chart below.
- Van Schaik
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November 19, 2011
On Corporate Responsibility
The argument persists: Should a corporation’s policies be designed for the primary benefit of the stockholders or management? Or should the welfare of the employees be the main concern in corporate decisions? How about none of the above? There is another group that seems to be forgotten in all the noise surrounding the issue. That group is the general public: The salt of the earth; the huddled masses yearning to just provide for their families and get on with their lives. In reality it is this group whose consideration should be first and foremost in all corporate operations and decisions.
- Van Schaik
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November 13, 2011
Manufacturing Inventories
The rate of growth of Manufacturing Inventories continued to slow in September but they were still up 11.8% year over year. Inventories are huge for this point in the business cycle. Unless sales exceed expectations look for cut backs in manufacturing output to reduce the inventories. See the charts below.
- Van Schaik
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