Jouchi Nakajima
Trend inflation for Japan
The latest: From 1983/Q1 to 2023/Q4 (updated in 2024/Jan.)
Real-time estimates of the full model in Nakajima (2023)
trend.csv - Trend inflation (mean estimate and one-standard-deviation bands)
trpro.csv - Regime probability of trend inflation
trtms.csv - Term structure of inflation forecasts
Cite the below article when using this dataset.
The dataset is estimated and released by J. Nakajima within his research activity.
The dataset is not the official view of the Bank of Japan.
The dataset is updated every quarter. The past figures are subject to updates.
References:
Nakajima, J. (2023). "Estimating trend inflation in a regime-switching Phillips curve" Discussion Paper Series A.750, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University