internationalopinion

India’s three Assembly elections this month gave victory to the ruling Congress party but the triumph is neither very encouraging nor the result of anything solid in terms of all round achi9evement and development for the nation is concerned.

Plain and simple: In Maharashtra the Congress-NCP combined won because of the rebel Shiv Sena (Raj Thackeray’s unruly MNS) factor. The split and bitterness in Shiv Sena ranks could not be stemmed by the SS Supremo, ageing Bal Thackeray. SS’s long-term ally, the Bharatiya Janata Party marginally increased its tally but the alliance inhibited the party and stunted its independent growth. Here’s a lesson tom be learnt: Time to go it alone.

Arunachal Pradesh: The Congress was expected to win as there is none other to challenge it. Of course, the state adds to the Congress kitty.

Haryana sprang a surprise for Congress as well as others. Here Congress party could not win comfortably, fell short by one but in the state of Haryana, famous for its Aya Rams and Gaya Rams, the Congress should have no problem in sticking to power.

The surprisingly good showing by the local Jat leader Om Prakash Chautala and his INLD would now lead the BJP to regret that the party went out alone whereas the alliance with Chautala could have got them the badly-needed victory. It was a big blunder for the BJP to decide to go it alone. Maharashtra and Haryana are, and have proved to be, different.

The Congress party is in a rejoicing mood for its strategy of dividing the opposition has succeeded. It is the golden rule adopted since long in history. In the history of the last two hundred years before India’s independence, it was the British that reaped the benefits from this policy. The Congress inherited it and is using it to its advantage. They encourage parties/groups/candidates to divide the opposition votes.

So, in the final analysis the Congress did not win, the opposition lost. But in terms of votes and seats won, the Congress got the majority, and that counts in modern democracy and the Parliamentary system. So be it.

Of course there is another lesson to be learnt: Bal Thackeray, once the Lion of Maharashtra, has lost his roar and power more so after he gave preference to his son against his nephew to effectively inherit his mantle.

It was well known for years that Raj was a better organizer and was virtually Balasaheb’s successor, not Uddhav. In a political party and against a cunning rival like the Congress a united Shiv Sena, along with the BJP, was a perfect match for Congress – had dominated Maharashtra and Bombay for many years.

However, as Balasaheb grew old and became comparatively inactive, his narrow-mindedness and love for his own son weakened the Shiv Sena. Raj, with his organizing ability and nuisance value has been gaining supporters – though often for the wrong reasons and in not-so-correct manner. However, in the ultimate analysis only the votes and seats count. Raj proved it, once again, as he did in the Lok Sabha polls dividing the SS votes.

The results are there for everyone to see and Raj made it possible for Congress -NCP alliance to win comfortably. Actually the Congress should send a big thank you not to Raj Thackeray and wish him to continue his role as he trounced Shiv Sena in its citadel of Mumbai and Thane, two major centers. “Marathi” votes are effectively split, probably for a long time.

The state election also saw the NCP’s clout diminishing. Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena effectively cut into NCP (Sharad Pawar) votes giving the Congress much more influence over their political ally. Congress would now make the most of its power in getting favorite portfolios. Raj has dealt blows to both Balasaheb and Sharad Pawar.

Congress improved its tally from 69 to 82; NCP got 62 (71 last time). Shiv Sena’s tally drastically dropped from 64 to 44 while the BJP got 46 against 54 in 2004. Independents and ‘others’ got 30. MNS got 13 seats, not a big number but enough to split Hindu and NCP votes to help Congress.

There was a surprising element for Congress victory. Seems the voters were neither swayed by price rise, terror attacks, farmers’ suicide, nothing noteworthy administrative achievement, nor any other factor like incumbency to reject Congress.

Overall, the three Assembly elections widened the gap between the ruling Congress party and the main opposition, Bharatiya Janata Party. The victory in Maharashtra and Haryana are not big (Haryana they need six supporters and Maharashtra just one), but their ability to stop and split the opposition and also weaken their allies to gain has been amply demonstrated.

As long as the non-Left opposition remains divided the Congress would be virtually assured of victory in a majority of states. Well, if the Left joins forces with the opposition, the Congress would certainly be routed. But that Left-Right unity is a distant dream and the Congress knows that.

In Haryana Congress actually lost around 7.4% votes; and another gainer was Kuldip Singh Bishnoi’s new organization, Haryana Janhit Congress. Chautala also lost his vote share though just marginally. Congress got only 40 seats in a house of 90 but is confident of retaining power with the help of may be independents or of the Bishnoi group.

Like the loss in Lok Sabha, the BJP will have to take a hard look at its strategy, alliances and leadership at various levels and re-organize the party structure with vigorously pursuing its clear-cut program. The party has to stop infighting, unnecessarily changing state level leadership and also bring about change in its central leadership. Those who left, or were forced to leave, because of infighting or high-handed treatment from the top leadership and who still subscribe to the BJP ideology should be welcomed and given proper respect due to them. The top level is on the way out because of the age factor and new leadership has to take over.

Finally, the matter of alliances: Wherever the BJP got into an alliance, the other partners reaped rich harvest. It had happened in Uttar Pradesh with BSP (Mayawati); it happened in Bihar with the Janata Dal (U) and earlier with Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP in Andhra Pradesh, where the BJP is nowhere.

All is not lost for the BJP, as all is not absolutely rosy for the Congress. No doubt Congress is gaining because of multiple factors that have not much to do with governance and economy, both lacking on the part of the ruling party.

RANDOM RECOLLECTION

Growing up as Teenagers, Long Time Back

By Yatindra Bhatnagar

The other day I read a piece about ‘then and now.’ It specifically said something good about the days long gone by when teens, just like me those days, would go out and play with friends without any undue worries for the parents.

Parents knew that their kids were safe, and that the neighbors, or even strangers, would be watching them and if anything untoward happens, the news would come to them in no time, courtesy strangers or neighbors.

Things were peaceful, happy, harmonious and friendly those days, without phones, not to mention cell phones. We would go out sometimes quite far off to the river to swim or watch the fish (some would try and catch them), to the jungles (there were many wooded areas where we lived in Indore and Ujjain), or go to the Chowpatty beach or Marine Drive or play cricket (while in Bombay, now Mumbai), We would play before and after school too, and come back home safely with exciting memories to share.

And one of the most important things was that hardly any of us would have any money. The practice of pocket money for the kids was uncommon as our needs would be met by our parents. It would be something uncommon that we would have a few paise (then one Rupee had 16 annas; much later after the introduction of decimal system Rupee had 100 paise). Later an occasional - few and far between - pocket money would be a couple of annas.

Actually we didn’t need money - now kids have more pocket money than necessary. When not in school (during the vacations or weekends) we would start after breakfast – or whatever we had to eat in the morning - and off we would go to have fun. Our fun was all innocent play – occasional pranks - and climbing up trees, plucking fruits and tamarind from non-private areas, flying kites, playing gilli-danda or kabaddi; hours of good clean fun-time.

There was no vandalizing other people’s properties, hardly any graffiti as such, and no gang-activities whatsoever. Fights would never cross the limit to be of concern, or result in injuries – that would be very rare. Of course that does not mean we boys were not boys in the normal, usual sense, but were rarely feuding. We were neighbors, and normally, got along nicely.

That’s why our parents would not worry about us and won’t think of contacting us every hour or thereabouts. We would also have a few dogs with us – all stray dogs but who were friendly and faithful (one of the reasons why our parents did not worry for us). Those dogs would gratefully accept left overs from us; they would neither complain not bark at us, only at strangers who might look to them unfriendly.

The wide variety of birds would also give us company flying high and low and keeping us amused. There would be sparrows, pigeons, eagles etc. Then there would be frogs, turtles, squirrels. There was no dearth of beautiful butterflies all around to entertain us. Some we would catch only to be released later.

Sometimes we would join some religious or cultural processions and go a couple miles but be back before anyone pressed a panic button if it was after sunset, little late in the evening.

I remember several exciting outings (call it hanging out with friends) in the jungles following the herds of cows, goats and buffaloes; climbing huge tamarind tress and jumping from one branch on the other and collect a bagful of the ripe, half ripe or just raw. There were other wild fruits like goolar, phoot and all kinds of berries. I relished tamarind and would eat more than a pound at one stretch. (Suffered because of tamarind eating is another story).

I remember only one time when I and a couple other boys joined a religious procession (with floats, bands and displays etc) after sunset that had Mother and sisters worried. They did not know that I had gone along with the band and floats. I must have been 8 years, was thoroughly enjoying myself and was carried away by the beautiful floats and the display by gymnasts and others.

It must have been a good two hours when I returned. There was no question of my losing my way though on my way back I was the only one from the neighborhood, the others probably disappeared somewhere, for a change. I found Mother and sisters Prem and Lata and closest neighbors also worried and asking other neighbors if they had seen me somewhere. None knew – for a change – that I had taken off on my own only to assert that nobody need worry about me. Things were much, much better then without cell phones and dangers lurking everywhere for kids.

Ah, those were the days! That was the time for peace and harmony and good neighborly relations. That was many, many decades back in the first half of the last century. Jaane kahaan gaye voh din!

10/24/09