Extracts from reviews:
Recently . . . a new development has challenged economists' monopoly on economic policy. This relates to the attempt by scientists from other disciplines to enter the public debate on issues such as the role of government and unemployment. Even more serious is the entry of economic historians into the public debate. Most conspicuous of all is Graeme Snooks, Coghlan Professor in Economics at the Australian National University. Since 1993, Professor Snooks has published seven books exploring economic dynamics from a historical perspective.
Longrun Dynamics is his latest publication which summarizes his major research findings and offers a new perspective on economic growth, cyclical fluctuations and macroeconomic policy. Although it can be seen as a 'brave attempt to construct a general theory of economic growth that explains the short-term cycles of rise and declinc -- or boom and bust -- together with longer-term patterns' (see The Australian, 6/1/99, p. 29), my reading suggests otherwise. I think Professor Snooks' primary objective is to identify those primary forces which have driven economic life in the long run and to lay the foundations for a macroeconomic model capable of explaining the data.
The book certainly challenges the prevailing wisdom in macroeconomics. Professor Snooks' contribution can be summarized as follows:
- an appreciation of economic history can greatly assist towards the development or macrocconomic theory,
- the need to survive and prosper acts as the driving force of economic history,
- 'strategic demand' (i.e., investment in major programs such as population growth, conquest, technical progress, mega-states) is the main cause of the rise and fall of civilizations,
- social cohesion and economic stability is due to a 'dynamic order' (an outcome of confidence generated by strategic innovation and imitation),
- long-run dynamics can lead to (i) economic growth when a dynamic strategy is successfully exploited, (ii) depression when the gains from the strategy are exhausted or (iii) stagnation when the society fails to develop a new dynamic strategy,
- the choice of a strategy depends on the physical and social environment,
- for each general strategy, there exist several strategic substrategics in order to fully exploit the dominant strategy,
- in order to build microeconomic models, one needs to be aware of the macroeconomic environment since the economic agents will behave in accord with the dynamic strategy pursued at the time,
- inflation is essential for the realization of dynamic strategies, and
- the emergence of mega-states (e.g. Europe) is the new technological sub-strategy of the 21st century.
. . . Overall, Longrun Dynamics makes an important contribution. It offers a new perspective in economic history and economics. This can only be of value to graduate students who might wish to consult Snooks (1996 [The Dynamic Society], 1997 [The Ephemeral Civiization], 1998 [The Laws of History]) for further details. I suspect macroeconomists will find it interesting but challenging. Naturally, the book will raise further questions . . .
-- George Messiris, The Economic Record, vol. 75, no. 229, June 1999, pp. 205-7.
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