The Magic Show Hypothesis . Typically the general public approaches the phenomenon of alienabductions or UFOs or whatever as a very binary situation as a they're either either they really experienced it and it's true or they're making it all up or they're delusional and it's false and that's it there's those are the two choices uh full stop and I would like to offer up a third third option in that and that would be the magic show hypothesis where if you take a child who has just been to a uh a big illusion show um and you ask them what they saw you say Hey Little Billy what' you see he's going to say he's going to describe some of the tricks he saw in the magic show and he's going to tell you um how he saw a woman cut in half and put back together again she got out of the box walked around everything was fine now is Billy lying to you no he's not lying he's telling the truth he's saying exactly what he saw happen in front of him on stage age now so he's not lying but also did a woman actually get cut in half no awoman did not get cut in half that's it's an illusion the whole thing was a trick so Billy is telling you what he believes he objectively viewed and what he believes he experienced um but it's actually completely false and that's where things get very complicated with regards to the UFO phenomenon and the abduction phenomenon and all that because if there is deliberate trickery if there is a deliberate effort to deceive someone um then you could have someone report what they believe to be true what they experienced and that experience is a complete fabrication and it's no through no fault of their own they're telling you what they experienced and they donot realize that their experience has been tampered with so anyway I know that's a uh more than you probably want to hear about that but that's that's kind of my working idea about a lot of the UFO phenomenon about the psychological warfare aspect of that um and how that can be used to exploit and create belief systems so anyway so The Magic Show hypothesis
Subject of this website: A silent epidemic of seemingly unimportant unrelated “syndromes”, with the most crazy subjects as hallmark, and at first glance nobody ever would suspect it can be all part of one and the same thing. and Possibly something of historical importance. Let's focus on the patterns. Mission: Give This silent ,"bizarre" epidemic the attention it deserves, capture the nature of it in a way that does not depend on any assumptions, prejudices, or values of the particular individual who studies it.”
Elaine Showalter, an American writer on cultural and social issues in 1997 published her book "Hysterical Epidemics and Modern Media" about "unexplained" modern illnesses, and clusters six seemingly unrelated contemporary maladies: chronic fatigue syndrome, Gulf War syndrome, recovered memories of sexual abuse, multiple personality disorder, Satanic ritual abuse, and alien abduction. Elaine's lists this new and unexplained "syndroms" as "same (kind of) things, this is a very accurate observation of her. But is it just "hysterical epidemics" ? They share many very specific similarities, all emerged in the 1980's, and kept simultaneously increasing, biggest numbers starting in the USA and shortly after spread globally
Stories of Targeted Individuals (TIs), alien abductees, and victims of Havana Syndrome share striking similarities in their narratives, focusing on themes of invisible, high-tech harassment, physical suffering, and a belief that a powerful entity is attacking them. Despite different explanations victims give, they all three share common features in the way victims describe their experiences, similar time evolving patterns and characteristics . All three give rise to conflicting theories and fierce disagreements among the defenders of each. Each explanation has as many convincing arguments for its own position as facts that contradict it. The anomalies accumulate without a coherent explanation being available. The hope is to find a framework that reconciles the discrepancies and contradictions. Most likely, this will not be an existing explanation, but a new one, and given that it has not been found for decades to date, it will be a very unexpected one.
The blind men and the elephant parable is an ancient Indian story about several blind men who touch different parts of an elephant—a leg, trunk, or tail—and argue that the animal is a pillar, snake, or rope, respectively. This fable illustrates how subjective experience is limited and that individuals often perceive only a portion of the truth, leading to conflicting views.
was-it-a-wild-card-or-just-our-blindness-to-gradual-change? Elina Hiltunen Finland Futures Research Centre,
2006 Key words: Future, Gradual change, Wild cards, Weak signals, Early warning signals, Emerging issues
The only thing we can do about anticipating wild cards is to try to look below the noise level (Coffman 1997b) in order to spot the weak signals. This can be done, for example, by using effective environmental scanning systems and focusing on extraordinary sources of information, like scanning the movements of minorities and activists of the society.
Today, the possibility of using Internet sources for information gathering, greatly augments any shortage of weak signals. On the Internet, the voices of a wide range of people are accessible. Following the stories of the masses and especially changes in them is one way of anticipating forthcoming changes. This kind of myth analysis was
successfully used by Shell in anticipating the forthcoming revolution in Iran (Åberg 1989: 251). Avoiding blindness for changes is achieved by searching signals of change with the curiosity of a child. These weak signals can be found especially from the periphery of the society. For avoiding blindness, the author shares two hints with the readers. Firstly, organizations, in modified terms of Star Trek, should: "boldly search signals where no man has searched before". Secondly, never say never in respect of future
"black swan theory" In his 2010 book, Taleb defines the term as an event with two characteristics: first, it is so rare and outside the realm of expectations that it is unpredictable; second, its consequences are extreme—either beneficial or catastrophic—though usually only the catastrophic
The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, economics, and technology.
The non-computability of the probability of consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).
The individual and collective psychological biases that make people blind to uncertainty, and to the significant role of rare events in historical affairs.
"black swan theory" refers only to statistically unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history. Such events, collectively play vastly larger roles than regular occurrences. Taleb provides the example of the 9/11 attacks, which were a black swan for many, but not for its planners and perpetrators.
Objectivity should not be mixed up with scientific consensus: Scientist may agree at one point in time but later discover that this consensus represented a subjective point of view.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Kuhn In The Structure of Scientific Revolutions , Thomas Kuhn argued that science does not progress via a linear accumulation of new knowledge, but undergoes periodic revolutions, also called "paradigm shifts" in which the nature of scientific inquiry within a particular field is abruptly transformed. In general, science is broken up into three distinct stages. Prescience, which lacks a central paradigm, comes first. This is followed by "normal science", when scientists attempt to enlarge the central paradigm by "puzzle-solving". Thus, the failure of a result to conform to the paradigm is seen not as refuting the paradigm, but as the mistake of the researcher. As anomalous results build up, science reaches a crisis, at which point a new paradigm, which subsumes the old results along with the anomalous results into one framework, is accepted. This is termed revolutionary science.