jacek.dunajewski@gmail.com
Dunajewski Effect in the World:
Earthquakes
are possible to predict, in my opinion
MOON PHASE
THE ORIGIN OF EARTHQUAKES
ABSTRACT : The paper focuses
on analysing correlations between movements of celestial bodies and the number
of large earthquakes. The relationship between the amount of energy coming to
the earth and the earth temperature is also studied. Earthquakes are believed
to be related to wave migrations within the magma, such wage migrations
reflect the attraction of celestial bodies on Earth. Several examples of such
effects are listed and explained. The whole approach is based on mathematical
modelling. The objective is to propose a method that would enable one to
foresee future earthquakes as well as cyclical changes in temperature. The
author has found that large earthquakes may be related to specific planet
movements. An extensive study of the balance of energy for our planet has
been performed.
I.
Introduction
Earthquakes
are one of the phenomena that are not yet well understood by mankind. Future
quakes cannot be effectively predicted. Observations and attempts of
earthquakes description, usually considering the most powerful earthquakes,
are a very attractive subject especially for journalists. The magnitude of
earthquake power is enormous and it has often been compared with the
explosion of a nuclear bomb. Undoubtedly, this comparison may provide an idea
of the destructive power of earthquakes. Eruptions of volcanoes are the next
phenomenon that has not been well described so far. Earthquakes and eruptions
will be discussed together in this article. They have the same origin. The
Scientists that study these phenomena are usually geologists, geophysicists
and so on. To explain the structure of our planet, they have moved from
Neptunism (Fr neptunisme) which had been described by A.G. Werner to
Plutonism (Fr plutonisme) described by J. Hutton, L. von Buch and A. von
Humboldt. These controversies could be witnessed at the beginning of the
creation of the science of volcanoes. The next intellectual step was the
hypothesis of continental drifts (A. Wegener). A.Wegener made his hypothesis
public in 1912.
Since
that date, no new opinion about the Earth behaviour, during phenomena such as
quakes, have been expressed. Obviously, many attempts to describe these
processes have been made and, most of all, scientists try to predict future
earthquakes.
II.
Selected directions of research about earthquakes
The
present technique of reckoning relies effectively on the analysis of
experimental data and it attempts to predict the future. This treatment is
based on the statistical study of experimental data. That approach to
treating earthquakes is favoured by the team of scientists that is led by
Prof. W. Keilis - Borok. They rely on the theory of chaos in their
calculations.
The
Swiss geophysicist Bernard Chouet presented another approach (he now works in
the USA).Ground trembling of volcano may provide warnings from coming
eruptions. The registration and the analysis of these tremblings allowed B.
Chouet to foresee the eruption of Popocatepetl (a volcano in Mexico).
A
similar approach to these phenomena is advocated by Didier Sornette -
professor of geophysics at California University, Los Angeles. Prof. Sornette
also relies on measuring the behaviour of the studied object in his method.
The studied object gives specific signals according to Prof. Sornette. The
analysis of these signals is expected to enable one to foresee the future. At
present Prof. Sornette studies the famous San Andreas fault in South
California. Earthquakes are registered by many seismic stations located all
over the world. Unfortunately, these stations only cover present quakes.
Therefore, these data, when they are available, do not enable one to model
the future.
III.
Mathematical modelling of earthquakes
We
decided to describe these phenomena first of all by studying the balance of
energy in these processes. The first problem that we decided to address was
the area of balance. Earthquakes show their effects in selected places of our
planet. However these places are plentiful. We decided to conduct a study of
the balances of energy for the whole planet (Earth). Then it has been
necessary to set the limits of this balance. First of all, we assumed (like
von Humboldt) that Earth is a liquid substance limited by the outside mantle
of the Earth. We are interested in the behaviour of this mantle. The upper
limits are the Moon and the Sun. Unfortunately many attempts of balancing
reciprocal interactions have not provided satisfactory analytical results. We
noticed that our calculating problems were analogical to the problems which
we meet at modelling the Moon's influences on the frequency of sea waves.
From these calculations, we initiated to study the balancing area of the
planets of our Solar System. However balancing of the Solar System still
didn't give effective results. We have performed many analyses using
balancing equations. In particularly we have thoroughly analysed the
equations of constraints and boundary-initial conditions. Numerous tests of
modifications led us to a corollary hypothesis that the problem probably
applies to the traditional equation describing reciprocal interactions
between two bodies. This dependency has been known from Newton's time. In the
classical presentation, two bodies with mass m1 and m2 are reciprocally
attracted with a power which is proportional to the product of masses m1 and
m2 and inversely proportional to the second power mutual distance between
these masses. This may be represented by the formula:
F = G*(m1*m2)/R2
This
law of interaction between two bodies is sufficient to describe the power
between these bodies only in stable cases. When bodies are in motion in
central (potential) fields the description of the two bodies’ interaction
becomes more complicated. Analyzing the running time and the positions of the
celestial bodies with respect to the Earth and to particular bodies that are
part of the Solar System, we observed some unknown regularity. Having
collected the dates of large earthquakes during many hundred of years, we
have analyzed the time and place of large earthquakes and the positions of
the particular planets. The planet positions of the Solar System may be
related to concrete earthquakes. We have examined the dates of major
eruptions, we have come to the conclusion that planets do have an influence
on this type of phenomena. After many analyses of dates and places of
earthquakes, we have made the following assumptions :
1.
Earth is a fluid mass. We do not analyse changes of the liquid mass density.
2.
This liquid mass is covered by a constant crust. We do not analyse the
movement of the continental plates.
3. Two
forces affect the Earth. The first force is the classical gravity force. The
second one is the force created during the mutual
movement of bodies moving in the potential field. The value of this component
of forces is dependent on their mutual speed.
4.
Wave migration of the liquid mass (magma) reflect the planets action on
Earth. There are waves of substance which should not be confused with seismic
waves.
These
accepted assumptions led us to look for explanations regarding the times and
places of the majority of the large earthquakes and eruptions.
IV. Planets
have an effect on earthquakes
Figure
1 presents the number of large earthquakes from 2003 to the beginning of 2004
(magnitude 4 or larger). There is the sum in the interval of time - seven
days. The distinct increase in the number of earthquakes in August and
September is clearly noticeable. The basic line of this diagram has its top
on the August and September fracture. Mars affects the Earth. Particular
peaks (maximum) on this diagram are the effects of dynamic forces from other
bodies moving around in the Solar System.
Figure 1 : Number of large earthquakes from 2003 up
to the beginning of 2004
The analysis
of these types of diagrams show that planets have a direct effect on large
earthquakes. On the other hand the Moon is responsible for additional
earthquakes with magnitude below 4. The most interesting observation is the
precise identification of the moment when a planet “effect” occurs. Planets
show their dynamic interaction when they are the furthest from Earth and
before they turn back to Earth. For this reason we can explicitly predict the
time of the planets’ main “effect” on Earth. Planets “pull” waves to
themselves. These waves are deflected from obstacles and they create
side-waves. The main wave runs at the same time according to its typical
trajectory. Just like in a water reservoir they form reflected, secondary and
other waves that are derivatives from the main waves.
The
analysis of waves made by particular objects led us to establish that planets
usually “pull” waves on the trajectory approached to Earth parallels. The
Moon usually “pulls” waves on the trajectory similar to Earth meridians.
Additionally, the Moon makes breeding of waves. In many cases we noticed that
the Moon “catches” a part of the substance from the main wave and usually
“transfers” it nearby the equator.
Energy
balances show another interesting dependency. Earthquakes are often
associated with cold periods. In the XXth century coldness was felt during
intense earthquakes. We can notice that on the diagram showing earthquakes
with power over 7 in the Richter’s scale. Most of the earthquakes happened in
40-ties years of the XXth century. There was a cold period (1946-1975). In
1910-1945 and 1976-2004 there have been warm periods. During this period, the
decrease in the number of earthquakes is noticeable. Particular planets tend
to “privilege” specific areas of the Earth. Just in September 2003 after a
very hot summer in Italy we wrote that the 2004 summer would be colder in
Italy. We could infer that from the analysis of the energy balance for this
area. This area is under the powerful influence of Mars. Another planet affects
the area where the USA are located. In particular, this can be seen when we
analyse the constant component and its interaction to Earth. Measurements
covering many years show an erection of the area in the Yellowstone Park (of
about 1 meter in the XXth century). This is the effect of the action of one
of the planets. In 1812 that planet caused an earthquake in New Madrid,
operating on this area by dynamic components which followed from motion of
bodies in the potential field.
V.
Amount of energy coming to Earth
By
balancing the amount of energy coming to the Earth, we can provide forecasts
of temperature for many years in this area.
Figure
3 below shows temperature forecasts for precise areas.
Figure 2 : Number of earthquakes per year (magnitude
7 or larger)
Figure 3 : Variations of temperature and forecasts /
ºC/
Analysing
the time of earthquakes in the past and the associated weather conditions, we
realized that we should increase the balance field for a more precise study
of this correlation. During a long time (million of years) our galaxy has
been a field of balance. Figure 4 below showing the time of glaciation and
warm periods on Earth illustrates this.
Figure 4 : Time of glaciation and warm periods on
Earth
VI.
Future impact on events
We can
also foresee earthquakes of low energy. Crumps of ground in underground
mining have the same causes. For example, in February and March 2003 the wave
of earthquakes caused by Jupiter in Europe (France) reached China and then
showed itself again in Europe causing mining accidents. Waves from different
planets may interact with one another. Wave interferences may appear and a
larger amount of energy may be liberated. This kind of situation was
witnessed in 1964 in Anchorage (Alaska). …
Date:
26th
08 2004
Copyright © 2002-2004 Margarita Dunajewska All
rights reserved
On the Nature of
Earthquakes, The Dunajewski Effect
Dunajewski Effect in the World:
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© 2002-2007 Margarita Dunajewska All rights reserved
Greenhouse
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© 2002-2005 Margarita Dunajewska All rights reserved
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Last modification: Wednesday, 13th Nov 2009
