This study has so far confined itself to evaluating the past performance of the Defence system. However to have some heuristic value it should also examine some of the options the future presents us with. As stated in the Introduction many of the decisions made over the past 15 years have locked us in for the foreseeable future. However there will be some decision points that will have to be looked at sooner rather than later.

There are:

The Post 2015-2020 Airforce. The C-130Hs and P-3Ks are having their lives extended but that can't go on forever. This page considers the options available from 2015.

The post 2015-2020 land Logistics task. The Army's 400 Unimog's are beginning to age and will need to be replaced within this time frame. The author stands by the recommendation of the original study on logistics vehicles.

While the author still contends that the Airforce, Army and Navy should be restructured into two organisations the NH90 helicopter in some ways makes that problematic. A thoroughly useful helicopter it could quite easily replace the Kaman Seasprites as the main model for maritime intervention. This would suggest that the Rotary wing units of the Airforce have a role to play both responding to events within our EEZ and in the field on deployment. The difficulty with the Seasprites will be obtaining parts over time as few Navies fly them anymore. It would make sense to replace them with navalised NH-90s before they are rendered unservicable through extortionate support costs. While this page recommended the EH-101, it is now too late to re-litigate that decision and standardising on the NH-90 by 2020 makes far more sense. Replacing this aircraft with some form of future tilt-rotor is a decision that can safely be left until after 2035.

The Navy support vessels Endaevour and the dive vessel Monowai will need replacement before 2020. By 2020 the ANZAC frigates will be coming up for 25 years service. This would be an ideal time to sell them before they have no value left.  At this time it would seem apposite to replace them with Environment Protection Vessels and Pacific Operations Vessels based on transport/hospital ships. EPVs in the original study are discussed  here. The transport mission is discussed here. I make a proposal here for a fleet of Expeditionary Vessels.

By 2027 the NZ LAVs and Pinzgauers will be 20 years old. Once again it would seem an apposite time to sell them while they still retain some value. This page looks at the technologies we might expect to incorporate into a 2030 armoured transport vehicle.

Geo-political considerations

It is expected that by 2035 China will be challenging the United States of America as the world's pre-eminent economy.

By 2025 India will be a regional super-power

Europe will be under extreme demographic pressure from population inflows from the Middle East and Africa.

Russia is likely to have regained some of its industrial strength, closely allied to India

Middle East conflict (ie Israel) is most unlikely to be resolved

By 2035 oil prices can be expected to be high as oil prices have followed a predictable series of crises every 22 years, although not necessarily much higher than at present (noting that the oil price may well be denominated in Euros instead of dollars). Canada may well be one of the world's most important oil exporting nations.

Climate change impacts should be apparent and a serious challenge in the Pacific.

Biohazard risks will be far higher with higher tourism and global population numbers.

2035 Technological considerations

The following defence related technologies will have matured considerably:

Hybrid-electric vehicle technology will be standard

Tiltrotor technology will be 25 years old.

Unpiloted Combat Aerial Vehicles will have been deployed

Autonomous robot soldiers will be 28 years old

High speed amphibious armoured vehicles will be available

Less than lethal beam weapons will be 25 years old

The A400M will be 20 years old (albeit ridiculously expensive)

and ships may be increasingly fuel-cell driven.

Conclusions

A post-2035 force will increasingly need to be

• less military and more all-hazards focused
• autonomised (ie more robots)
• highly mobile at low cost
• capable of less than lethal responses
• network centric/resistant

steadfastly rooted in World War Two thinking our military shows little evidence of being able to meet these challenges.