This morning, I got mostly right in riding the wave from 1.4650 to 1.4817 though I bought too early at 1.4700 and the wave barely made to 1.4817 being qualified as impulsive wave: the 4th wave of smaller degree technically touched the territory of the 2nd wave at 1.4648. I got cautious after seeing this touch and go, and took profit early around 1.4670. I was up 50(1 unit)+65 (1 unit)=115pips. It was a right move up to this moment, considering that there was a diverging nightmare after this (mostly due to post ECB noise). The price made itself to 1.4817 only after a fairly big confusing swing down. It was this diversion that made me do a stupid move. I shorted around 1.4780 with 1.4805 stop, and of course I got stopped. And I did this mistake again though for this second one, I had a better justification in trading. At least for the first mistake, I have to take the blame. I should never be a hero to jump in A wave. This good lesson cost me almost the gain I got in the first winning trade, and left me with a few pips. With the Rational Move Risk Control Spreadsheet as a reminder to make the bet smaller and trade less often in this situation, I stopped the trading for the day. Now I am analyzing more with no trade. Mr. Todd Gordon labeled the top of today's price as the end of purple .3 wave which as 240min~120min time frame in his labeling system. I found this timeframe definition a bit confusing because this does not mean, the wave ends within 240min ~ 120min. It rather means the wave is visible in 240min ~ 120min chart as far as I observed in his past presentation. In that regard, I am in fact labeling this top as purple .1 as shown in the image above. Mr. Gordon's count is shown in parentheses. I also doubt it was purple .3 wave because by the rule of Elliott wave principle, the 3rd wave has to be further subdivided into one wholesome impulsive wave of lesser degree. Try breaking down the purple .3 wave shown with a thick green line in the image, and break down the 3rd wave of this .3. At lest for me, it's not possible to count it as impulsive because, one way or another, 4th wave goes into the territory of 2nd wave... So, I am still skeptical to the idea that 1.4817 was the top of the 3rd wave. I think it was an ugly .1 wave. Any case, the future price action will tell us whether I was right. If it was in fact .1 wave as I counted, the pull down of .2 wave should be a zigzag wave, and price rather goes down to 0.618~0.786 retracement (see black zigzag arrow). If Mr Gordon was right, the next price action is complex 4th wave and it should stay above 1.4648 at worst. Because of these uncertainty in my mind, I am very cautious with this market, and sit back with no position initiated. As Mr. Gordon always says, "Protect your assets." and "Let the market come to you."

It took me a bit of patience to keep on just waiting with no buy/sell position. I was very much puzzled by this 4th wave move, and I felt my face brightened when I finally started to see what EURUSD was trying to draw on the chart. It was a product of the hesitation from both USD sellers and buyers that lead this complex 4th wave followed by the leading diagonal as I labeled in the chart above. Probably USD sellers had initial hesitation because USD already had been beaten so bad that sudden strong rebound may be over due. USD buyers were also very hesitant the equity market eventually found its way up above DOW 10000. I have no idea what is exactly happening (who does?), but I can see some kind of initial hesitation in the price action, and now USD sellers gaining more momentum, which is EURUSD positive, probably also helped by higher oil price, not to mention Apple's profit surge. Anyways, I am seeing the wedge shaped trend up as the leading diagonal. This is the 1st wave of impulsive wave up, so I would not be surprised if the retracing down is as hard as 1.4860 or lower. It may be supported at 1.4922 before the strong 3rd wave emerges. In any case, there should be a relatively clear a-b-c zigzag wave ahead of us, and it should not break 1.4826 line down if this count is correct. I am mostly seeing the timing to enter a long position, riding on the 3rd wave up, but depending on tonight's price action and timing, I may enter to a "scalping" mode, and do quick short selling on the blue c wave towards the end of black 2 wave before establishing the long position. I am still careful, and being very selective. Need to pick the low hanging fruits in this October. Seeking a trade of very good risk-reward ratio.