Federations

Federations: The Political Dynamics of Cooperation, Cornell Univ Press, 2009. My book contrasts federal unions with international organizations such as alliances and customs unions.  Common theories of why states form federations and IOs both point to the potential for gains from cooperation in general, since states that pool their economic and military resources can be wealthier and more secure than those that do not, and the gains that come from institutionalized cooperation in particular, since states the cooperate through regular institutions can reduce the transactions costs of recurring bargains.  However, these existing theories cannot account for why states choose federations instead of IOs, and vice versa.  

I develop a new theory that states federate when their leaders expect benefits from closer military or economic cooperation but also expect that cooperation via an international organization would put some of the states in a vulnerable position, open to extortion from their erstwhile partners. The potentially vulnerable states hold out, refusing to join alliances or customs unions, and only agreeing to military and economic cooperation under a federal constitution.  I examine several historical cases: the making of a federal Australia and the eventual exclusion of New Zealand from the union; the decisions made within Buenos Aires and Prussia to build Argentina and Germany largely through federal contracts rather than conquests; and the failures of postindependence unions in East Africa and the Caribbean.

Find the book at a library near you, an independent bookstore, or other online bookstores via google books.

National Unification and Mistrust: Bargaining Power and the Prospects for a PRC/Taiwan Agreement.  Security Studies 2008. This paper applies elements of the theory to China and Taiwan.  Tacit negotiations over reunification may yield an agreement if Beijing can structure an offer to Taipei that allows Taiwan to maintain (or expand) external ties, via independent representation at the UN, WTO, and an alliance with the United States, in the context of a formally unified confederal state.  Cowritten with Scott Kastner. 

A new project in progress applies a version of the argument to Korean unification.  The first paper in the series is about the strategic logic underlying South Korea's various approaches to the North over time.   Cowritten with Jai Kwan Jung.