RE: Roy Barnes’ bid for the governor’s seat reshapes the political landscape

Posted by TANSTAAFL on 06.10.09 @ 10:44 PM

Kudos Mr. Henry,

That was quite an interesting exercise in examining the state of the race for the Governorship in 2010.

Have you considered the effect that Libertarian John Monds is going to have on the race? Here's an interesting article that does:


Hi Kids,

OK, we're gonna start the conversation about the impending run off in the 2010 Governors race here in Georgia. Wait a minute, you say, that election is over 500 days away! There are no candidates that have been selected by their respective conventions or won any of the primaries! How can you start talking about a run off ! What kind of crack are you smoking?

Good point, but we're still going to delve into the impending run off. It's gonna happen. Ideally, our guy John Monds will have to good fortune to wind up facing Roy Barnes as the democratic candidate and Nathan Deal as the republican standard bearer. That makes Libertarian John Monds the only African American up there on the debate podium. His opposition will be two old fat white guys who symbolize all the bad things about politics in Georgia. No transportation plan, no tax relief, no improvement in education and more people going to jail everyday for victimless crimes. That's their legacy.

Furthermore, Deal and Barnes are so solidly entrenched in their respective parties that "conventional wisdom" will bind them to the doctrines that get them through their primaries and into the general election. That same conventional wisdom will lead them to utterly ignore John Monds as a candidate through the course of their campaigns until election night when they realize that neither one of them will break the 50% +1 barrier to secure the Governorship. Tongues will wag and fingers will be pointed to no avail. Two of the three candidates will have to gear up for another month of campaigning, arm twisting and begging for money to achieve their goal.

And one of those two candidates just might be John Monds.

How can you even start thinking that you ask? It's easy, look at the results from the 2008 PSC race. John Monds garnered over 1,000,000 votes running against an entrenched incumbent. An encumbent republican who was considered to be so strong that the Georgia Democratic party could not find a candidate willing to run against him. But John Monds did. And he did it on a campaign budget of just over $5,000. That's right $5,000. Digest that fact.

John Monds has a lock on the Libertarian nomination for 2010. His stellar performance in the 2008 PSC race speaks for itself, but we'll be detailing some particulars from that race later on in this screed to illustrate why we so firmly believe that a run off is ineviatable.Let's set the table first with some pertinent background info from our very own Secretary of States office. Election results, boys and girls, election results.

First, here's the link to the SecStates website detailing the statewide and by county results for the 2008 PSC race, southern district:

http://sos.georgia.gov/elections/election_results/2008

Here are the statewide totals 2008 PSC Southern District

Everett(R) Monds(L) Total Vote
2,147,012 1,076,726 3,223.738

Here are some selected counties to illustrate how strong John Monds support was in key areas. Read that 3 Democratic Strongholds

County Everett Monds

CLAYTON 26,938 48,375 75,313
DEKALB 100,210 137,927 238,137
FULTON 164,550 157,572 322,122


Here are some numbers from 3 key Republican Strongholds

County Everett Monds

GWINNETT 163,024 83,514 246,538
COBB 181,554 85,334 266,888
CHEROKEE 65,418 18,796 84,214


Starting to see a trend? Here's some more data to chew on from the SecState. In the 2008 election, a big election what with Rockin' Barry O steamrolling to victory, guess how many votes were cast in the presidential election here in Georgia? The answer is 3,924,486! So in a vibrant national election, the significantly down ticket non democrat, non republican, Libertarian John Monds got over a million votes out of 3.2 million ballots cast. Well kids, 2010 is not a national cycle election. Lets look at 2006 for some vote total info!



Perdue(R)
1,229,724

Taylor(D)
811,049

Hayes(L)
81,412

A little over 2.1 million votes cast in the Governors race, a long way from 3.9 million in the 2008 Presidential race. And our guy Hayes got a respectable 81K. Not bad for a guy with even less money than John Monds had in the PSC race. So what does this mean? It's a fact that off year elections have lower turnout. It's unavoidable, people have busy lives and if there isn't something really striking going on, buzz is low and so is turnout. For regular political parties. Libertarian's are not regular.

This is how it's going to play out, about 2.1 maybe 2.3 million votes will be cast in 2010. John Monds is going to take about 300,000 conservative voters out of the republican column because the republicans are not fiscally conservative enough and about the same number from democrats who feel their party is not socially liberal enough plus around 100,000 or so independents and fellow Tin Hat wearin', spaceship polishin' Libertarians. He'll get 700,000 votes or right at 33% of the vote.

I know, mighty bold talk for a crazy Libertarian, but that's why we'll have a run off in the 2010 Governors race. Wouldn't it be a hoot if it was a three way tie?

More to follow from your friendly neighborhood Libertarian Community Organizer!