Professor
Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV
Email: bernardo.guimaraes at fgv.br
CV (March 2024); Google Scholar profile; IDEAS profile
Working papers:
"Why do individuals keep trading despite losing?" (with Fernando Chague, Bruno Giovannetti and Bernardo Maciel): [abstract+pdf], November 2023.
"Structured retail products: risk-sharing or risk-creation?" (with Otavio Bitu and Bruno Giovannetti): [abstract+pdf], October 2023.
"Short-covering bubbles" (with Pierluca Pannella): [abstract+pdf], September 2023, revise and resubmit, Journal of Economic Theory.
"The overpricing of popular high-risk stocks" (with Fernando Chague and Bruno Giovannetti): [abstract+pdf], January 2024, revise and resubmit, Review of Asset Pricing Studies.
"Non-compete agreements, wages and efficiency: theory and evidence from Brazilian football" (with João Paulo Pessoa and Vladimir Ponczek): [abstract+pdf], March 2022.
"Potential coordination games with timing frictions" (with Caio Machado and Nicolas Souza): [pdf], September 2022.
"The rise of the Taylor Principle" (with Carlos Eduardo Goncalves): [abstract+pdf], February 2022.
Publications in international journals:
"Institutional specialization" (with Kevin Sheedy), Journal of International Economics, 2024: [pdf], [abstract].
"Permitting prohibitions" (with Bruno Meyerhof Salama), Journal of Legal Studies, 2023: [pdf], [abstract].
"How diabolic is the sovereign-bank loop? The effects of post-default fiscal policies" (with Andre Diniz), Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2023: [pdf], [abstract].
"Who matters in dynamic coordination problems?" (with Gabriel Jardanovski), Journal of Public Economic Theory, 2022: [pdf], [abstract].
"The determinants of IMF fiscal conditionality: economics or politics?" (with Carlos Eduardo Ladeira), Canadian Journal of Economics, 2021: [pdf], [abstract].
"Financial constraints and collateral crises" (with Luis Araujo and Diego Rodrigues), Review of Economic Dynamics, 2020: [pdf], [abstract].
"Dynamic coordination with timing frictions: theory and applications" (with Caio Machado and Ana Elisa Pereira), Journal of Public Economic Theory, 2020: [pdf], [abstract].
"Capital cities, conflict, and misgovernance" (with Filipe Campante and Quoc-Anh Do), American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 2019: [pdf], [abstract].
"Dynamic coordination and the optimal stimulus policies" (with Caio Machado), Economic Journal, 2018: [pdf], [abstract]
Online appendix: [pdf]. Earlier version: "Demand expectations and the timing of stimulus policies"
"State-controlled companies and political risk: Evidence from the 2014 Brazilian election" (with Augusto Carvalho), Journal of Public Economics, 2018: [pdf], [abstract]
"Guarding the Guardians" (with Kevin Sheedy), Economic Journal, 2017: [pdf], [abstract]
Earlier versions: "A Model of Equilibrium Institutions", "Power Sharing, Rents, and Commitment" and "A Model of the Rule of Law"
"A coordination approach to the essentiality of money" (with Luis Araujo), Review of Economic Dynamics, 2017: [pdf], [abstract]
"Dynamic coordination among heterogeneous agents" (with Ana Elisa Pereira), Journal of Mathematical Economics, 2017: [pdf], [abstract]
"A model of the confidence channel of fiscal policy" (with Caio Machado and Marcel Ribeiro), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2016: [pdf], [abstract]
"QWERTY is efficient" (with Ana Elisa Pereira), Journal of Economic Theory, 2016: [pdf], [abstract]
"Sovereign default risk and commitment for fiscal adjustment" (with Carlos Eduardo Goncalves), Journal of International Economics, 2015: [pdf], [abstract]
"Intertemporal coordination with delay options" (with Luis Araujo), Journal of Economic Theory, 2015: [pdf], [abstract]
"IMF conditionalities, liquidity provision, and incentives for fiscal adjustment" (with Oz Iazdi), International Tax and Public Finance, 2015: [pdf], [abstract]
"Coordination in the use of money" (with Luis Araujo), Journal of Monetary Economics, 2014: [pdf], [abstract]
"US real interest rates and default risk in emerging economies" (with Nathan Foley-Fisher), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2013: [pdf], [abstract]
"Sovereign default: which shocks matter?", Review of Economic Dynamics, 2011: [pdf], [abstract]
"Sales and monetary policy" (with Kevin Sheedy), American Economic Review, 2011: [pdf], [abstract]. Complete version with proofs: [pdf]
"Risk and wealth in a model of self-fulfilling currency attacks" (with Stephen Morris), Journal of Monetary Economics, 2007: [pdf], [abstract]. Complete version with proofs: [pdf]
"International lending of last resort and moral hazard: a model of IMF's catalytic finance" (with Giancarlo Corsetti and Nouriel Roubini), Journal of Monetary Economics, 2006: [pdf], [abstract]
"Dynamics of currency crises with asset market frictions", Journal of International Economics, 2006: [pdf], [abstract]. Proofs: [pdf]
Publications in Brazilian/Latin American journals:
"This is not America: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy in Brazil" (with Laura Elias): [abstract+pdf], forthcoming, Economía (LACEA).
"Time-dependent or state-dependent pricing? Evidence from a large devaluation" (with Celio Feltrin Jr), Brazilian Review of Econometrics, 2016: [abstract+pdf].
"Time-dependent or state-dependent pricing? Evidence from firms' response to inflation shocks" (with Andre Mazini and Diogo de Prince), Brazilian Review of Econometrics, 2016: [abstract + pdf].
"O Comunicado do Banco Central" (with Rodolfo Cabral, in Portuguese), Revista Brasileira de Economia, 2015:[abstract + pdf].
"Qualis as a measuring stick for research output in Economics", Brazilian Review of Econometrics, 2011: [abstract + pdf].
"Monetary policy, default risk and the exchange rate" (with Carlos Eduardo Goncalves), Revista Brasileira de Economia, 2011: [abstract + pdf].
"A possibilidade de saltos no cambio implicita nos premios das opcoes" (in Portuguese, with Marcos Eugenio da Silva), Revista Brasileira de Economia, 2002.
Unpublished papers:
"On the costs of sovereign default in quantitative models" (with Lucas Tumkus): [pdf], July 2020.
"Vulnerability of currency pegs: evidence from Brazil": [pdf], October 2008.
Part of the material in this paper was in "Expectations before the Brazilian currency crisis of 1999" and "Market expectations and currency crises: theory and empirics".
Teaching material:
International Financial crises: [pdf], 2024.
Books (in Portuguese):
"Microeconomia Brasileira Contemporânea" (with André Portela Souza), 2024.
"A Riqueza da Nação no Século XXI", 2015.
"Economia sem Truques" (with Carlos Eduardo Goncalves), revised edition, 2015.
"Introducao a Economia" (with Carlos Eduardo Goncalves), 2nd edition, 2017.