Once again, I was convinced that Elliott wave principle is the great predictor as I was warned to get out of the market, especially on the EURUSD long side. Some people even got luckier by jumping in, and shorted EURUSD at the end of E (=1.5063, and remember it was just a few pips away from the Fib resistance I mentioned in the previous posts), and took a 100+pips ride down the very first down trend of purple .1. I chose not to jump in the .1 wave because it may have been fake. Besides, we will have a long way (2500pips?) to go down if this is really the beginning of the multi-monthly bear market wave for EURUSD. So why hustle and risk your capital? As the NY market closes today, I think black 3 wave have just ended, and black 4 wave started to bounce EURUSD up for a bit. If it bounces up to 1.4879 level, which is at the end of .4 wave on 10/20 in my count, it will leave black 5 wave a nice distance, which is as long as the black 1 wave (see the grey arrow). And this will coincide with the end point of the previous black 4 wave on 10/18 (= 1.4826). For now, I assume this is how purple .1 will look like, and it should be followed by purple .2 wave upwards. As far as I have observed, most wave 2 retracements reaches 61.8% of the length of wave 1, and often we witness 70.7%, 78.6% or longer retracement, but not exceeding the starting point of wave 1. So I will look forward to establishing EURUSD short position averaging around 1.4994 later this week.

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