Publications and Papers Under Revision
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- "Markov Switching and Exchange Rate Predictability,"
with Ruxandra Prodan, 2011. International
Journal of Forecasting (forthcoming) [wp version]
- "Monetary
Policy Estimation in Real Time: Forward-Looking Taylor Rules Without
Forward-Looking Data," (single-authored) 2011. Journal of Money, Credit and
Banking, Vol. 43, No. 5 (August) [wp version]
- "Taylor Rules and the Euro," with Tanya Molodtsova and David Papell, 2011. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 43, No. 2–3 (March–April) [wp version]
- "Forecasting the End of the Global Recession: Did We Miss the Early Signs?,"
with Adriana Fernandez, 2011. Dallas Fed Staff Papers, No. 12, April.
- "Can Alternative Taylor-rule Specifications Describe the Federal Reserve Decisions?," with Adriana Fernandez and Evan F. Koenig, 2010. Journal of Policy Modeling, Volume 32, Issue 6, November-December, Pages 733-757 .
- "The Changing Nature of the U.S. Economic Influence in the World," with Adriana Fernandez, 2010.
Journal of Policy Modeling Volume 32, Issue 2, March-April, Pages 196-209.
- "Taylor Rules and Real-Time Data: A Tale of Two Countries and One Exchange Rate,"
with Tanya Molodtsova and David Papell, 2008. Journal of Monetary Economics 55 S63-S79. [wp version]
- "Globalization and the Changing Nature of the U.S. Economy's Influence in the World," with Adriana Fernandez, 2008.
Economic Letter, Vol. 3, No. 11, November.
- "The Relative Performance of Alternative Taylor Rule Specifications,"
with Adriana Fernandez and Evan F. Koenig, 2008. Dallas Fed Staff Papers, No. 6, June.
- "Measuring the Taylor Rule's Performance," with Adriana Fernandez, 2007.
Economic Letter, Vol. 2, No. 6, June.
- "Crime
Spillovers and Hurricane Katrina,"
with Andrew Hussey and Ioana Pacurar. Under 3rd revision for the Journal of Human Resources
- "A Real-Time Historical Database for the OECD,"
with Adriana Fernandez and Evan Koenig, 2011.
- "The Effects of Wage Volatility on Growth," with Michael Jetter and William Smith, 2011. Submitted.
- "Taylor's Rule versus Taylor Rules," with David Papell, 2011. Submitted.
- "Taylor Rules and the Great Inflation: Lessons from the 1970s for the Road Ahead for the Fed,"
with David Papell, 2010. Submitted.
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"Inflation
Persistence and the Taylor Principle,"
with Christian Murray and David Papell, 2010. Submitted.
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"Does Trade Cause Capital to Flow? Evidence from Historical Rainfalls,"
with Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2010. NBER working paper w16034. Submitted.
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"Foreign
Direct Investment and Export Performance in Emerging Economies:
Evidence from Indian I.T. Firms,"
with David Kemme and Deepraj Mukherjee, 2010. Submitted.
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"AIDing
Contraception: HIV and Recent Trends in Abortion Rates,"
with Andrew Hussey and Jay Walker, 2010. Submitted.
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- This semester: Advanced Macroeconomics I, Quantitative Economics Analysis
- Graduate classes taught: Advanced Macroeconomics I (syllabus), Advanced Macroeconomics II (syllabus), Advanced Quantitative Economic Analysis (syllabus), Econometrics II Applied Microeconometrics (syllabus), Applied Monetary Economics/Time Series Econometrics (Macro II) (syllabus)
- Undergraduate classes taught: Introduction to Macroeconomics (syllabus)
- Lecture notes (pdf): Macro: Consumption and Savings, Macro: Business Cycles, Macro: Monetary Policy, Applied Microeconometrics, Quantitative Economics
- Teaching evaluations
- "Monetary Policy Shifts and the Forward Discount Puzzle," with Michael Jetter, 2011.
- "The Effect of Recessions on Fiscal and Monetary Policy," with Dean Croushore.
- "The Comparative Performance of Alternative Out-of-sample Predictability
Tests with Non-linear Models,"
with Yu Liu and Ruxandra Prodan, 2011.
- "Globalization and Inequality: Evidence from 19th Century Rainfalls,"
with Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan and Dietrich Vollrath, 2010.
- David Papell, Professor and Chairman, Department of Economics, University of Houston. Phone: 713-743-3807 Email: dpapell@uh.edu
- Dean Croushore, Professor and Chairman, Department of Economics, University of Richmond. Phone: 804-287-1961 Email: dcrousho@richmond.edu
- Christian Murray, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Houston. Phone: 713-743-3835 Email: Christian.Murray@mail.uh.edu
- Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Houston and NBER. Phone: 713-743-3824 Email: Sebnem.Kalemli-Ozcan@mail.uh.edu
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