Date: December 6, 2009 Time: 8:30 am - 12:00 (Half-day) Location: Renaissance Inner Harbor Baltimore, MD Please register via Society for Risk Analysis Decision makers must frequently rely on data or information that is incomplete or inadequate in one way or another. Judgment, often from experts, then plays a critical role in the interpretation and characterization of those data. But how experts are selected and their judgments elicited matters – they can also strongly influence the opinions obtained and the analysis on which they rely. Several approaches to eliciting expert judgments have evolved. This workshop will cover topics ranging from expert recruitment, elicitation protocol design, different elicitation techniques (e.g., individual elicitations, Delphi method, nominal group technique, etc.) to aggregation methods for combining opinions of multiple experts. The role of expert elicitation and its limitations, problems, and risks in policy analysis will also be addressed. The workshop will conclude with the presentation of two case studies. The first one from EPA on using expert elicitation to determine the relationship between mortality and exposure to fine particulates. The second case study is a recent FDA study that evaluated the effectiveness of various practices for reducing Salmonella contamination risk in fresh and fresh-cut tomatoes through an expert elicitation. Both presentations will include a discussion of the expert selection process; elicitation protocol development, elicitation technique utilized, and the various issues that arose before, during, and after the elicitation process and the manner in which they were resolved. |