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Prediction Letter

The prediction letter of the Karmapa’s rebirth is of central importance in the Kagyu lineage because, unlike any other reincarnate lineage of Tibet, the Karmapa’s are self-recognized. In full accord with this tradition, the 16th Karmapa wrote a letter predicting the circumstances of his rebirth and gave it to Tai Situ Rinpoche, one of the 4 regents of the lineage, hidden inside an amulet pendant. The letter named the parents of the 17th Karmapa and the time and place he would be reborn. Ogyen Trinley Dorje was discovered on the basis of this prediction and the circumstances of his birth matched those described precisely.

Challenges to the Letter’s Authenticity and the Red Herring of “Forensic Analysis”

Shamar Rinpoche and supporters claim that the Prediction Letter is a forgery fabricated by Tai Situ Rinpoche, despite the fact that its authenticity has been verified by every other primary leader of the Kagyu, all of them intimately familiar with the 16th Karmapa’s handwriting. The letter was also reviewed and accepted as genuine by His Holiness the Dalai Lama, who himself personally corresponded with the 16th Karmapa.

Shamar Rinpoche demands that the letter be subject to Western-style “forensic analysis.” This demand has been refused for the simple reason that the discovery of the Karmapa’s rebirth has always been conducted by the leading figures of the lineage in consultation with the greatest masters of the time, and not based on the judgment of secular "experts" of any kind. Such a procedure would therefore be an indignity against the sacred traditions of the lineage.

Even by secular standards, Western handwriting analysis is grossly inadequate to the task, since there are no analysts trained in Tibetan script.  The term “forensic” itself has a deceptively authoritative air when applied to handwriting analysis. It is not a precise science on par with other forensic methods, such as DNA or fingerprint analysis, and courts frequently favor the opinion of those personally familiar with the subject's handwriting over that of experts.

Shamar Rinpoche and supporters have seized on the refusal to submit the 16th Karmapa’s prediction letter to Western handwriting analysis as proof of a conspiracy. However, the supreme irony of this charge is that Shamar Rinpoche has never produced his own version of a letter penned by the 16th Karmapa predicting the rebirth as his candidate - neither for forensic analysis of the original document nor even for simple review of the contents. Shamar Rinpoche has simply appointed his own candidate, in contravention of the Kagyu lineage's core tradition.

Prior to his formal confirmation of the Karmapa's self-recognition, His Holiness the Dalai Lama met with Shamar Rinpoche to hear his objections. According to unofficial reports, when asked to produce the alternate letter he claimed existed, Shamar Rinpoche stated that he did not have it, but had been told about it by another Rinpoche. But when His Holiness reached this person by telephone, he denied ever having seen such a letter.

>> Detailed treatment on the notion of forensic analysis of Tibetan sacred texts

View Interviews with 3 of the 4 Regents of the Kagyu Lineage Concering the Prediction Letter Written by the 16th Karmapa

This clip is from "Living Buddha" (1994) by German documentary filmmaker Clemens Kuby.

Shamar Rinpoche has never produced his own version of a letter penned by the 16th Karmapa predicting the rebirth as his candidate, Trinle Thaye Dorje - neither for forensic analysis of the original document nor even for simple review of the contents.